Lugari MP Nabii Nabwera is no longer just another first-term legislator. In recent months, he has morphed into the single biggest disruptor of ODM’s long-cherished script in Kakamega County, sparking panic within Raila Odinga’s inner circle and rattling the governor’s office.
In a region that has, for decades, served as Raila’s political lifeline, Nabwera’s bold defiance has cracked open rifts that could cost ODM dearly in the 2027 general election.
A Legacy of Power and Defiance
Born into a family of political pedigree, Nabwera carries a surname that commands attention in Western Kenya. His father, Burudi Nabwera, was once one of the most powerful men in President Moi’s administration—Kenya’s first ambassador to the United States and later MP for Lugari in 1988. But like many political stories of the era, Burudi’s fortunes crashed with the advent of multiparty democracy in 1992.
Today, Nabii Nabwera seems intent on rewriting that family script. Having served as Chief of Staff to former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, Nabwera built networks across the county’s political establishment before storming into Parliament in 2022. Now, with a mix of youthful energy and old-guard pedigree, he is forcing ODM to confront questions it would rather ignore.
The ODM Civil War in Kakamega
The flashpoint is the Kakamega County ODM chairmanship. The party headquarters, working under Raila’s blessing, endorsed Governor Fernandes Barasa for the role. The move was meant to cement Barasa’s authority and rally the county ahead of 2027.
But Nabwera flatly rejected the script. At a rally in Lugari last month, he stood on the podium, declared himself the ODM chairman not just in Kakamega but across the former Western Province, and dared anyone—including Raila—to challenge him.
“ODM in Kakamega belongs to the people, not to State House meetings or secret deals,” Nabwera thundered, to cheers from a youthful crowd.
That declaration has set the stage for a bitter turf war. ODM insiders whisper that Barasa has been quietly petitioning the party leader to discipline Nabwera. But Raila, ever the political tactician, has hesitated—aware that punishing the MP could spark an even bigger rebellion in Western.
Raila’s Growing Dilemma
For Raila, the stakes are existential. Western Kenya, and Kakamega in particular, is the heart of ODM’s grassroots machine. In 2022, Kakamega delivered him over 70 percent of the vote. Losing control of the county—or even appearing divided—would embolden rivals like President William Ruto’s UDA, which has been making aggressive inroads, and Moses Wetang’ula’s Ford-Kenya, which is consolidating Bungoma.
One senior ODM official, speaking on condition of anonymity, admitted the gravity of the crisis:
“What Nabwera is doing is not just a personal rebellion. He is opening the door for UDA to argue that ODM can’t even control its own house. If this continues, 2027 could be a bloodbath for us in Kakamega.”
The Grassroots Pulse
On the ground, Nabwera’s message is resonating with a restless base. Many locals say they feel alienated by a party leadership that parachutes decisions from Nairobi.
At a market in Webuye, a trader put it bluntly:
“Raila has used us for votes, but when it comes to leadership positions, he only listens to governors and big men. Nabii is different—he speaks our language.”
Such sentiments underline the danger. While Barasa holds the machinery of county government, Nabwera’s appeal among ordinary voters could split the ODM vote right down the middle.
What This Means for 2027
Political analysts warn that the ODM wrangle could become a textbook case of how internal disunity costs a party elections. With Barasa and Nabwera at loggerheads, ODM risks walking into 2027 with two rival factions, each undermining the other.
Dr. Charles Oloo, a political scientist at Masinde Muliro University, says Nabwera’s rise is a symptom of ODM’s failure to nurture new leadership in Western.
“For too long, ODM has relied on Raila’s personal charisma to hold Western together. But the ground has shifted. Nabwera is tapping into generational frustration—young leaders want a seat at the table, and they won’t wait for permission.”
A Vulnerable Flank
As ODM dangles between unity and chaos, rivals are circling. UDA is reportedly considering backing a strong candidate for Kakamega governor in 2027, banking on disillusioned ODM supporters. Ford-Kenya, meanwhile, is watching with quiet satisfaction as ODM tears itself apart.
The once straightforward script—that ODM would smoothly retain Kakamega through Governor Barasa—is now in tatters. Nabii Nabwera has ripped it up and written himself into the center of the story.
For Raila Odinga, who has weathered political storms for decades, Nabwera is proving to be an unusual headache—one that is emerging not from State House or foreign capitals, but from the heart of his own backyard.
And unless ODM resolves this standoff, Kakamega could be the county that exposes just how vulnerable Raila’s fortress truly is.
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