When the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party rolls out its 20th-anniversary celebrations in Mombasa this morning, it will not just be marking two decades of political activity—it will be staging the most consequential political gathering in Kenya since the passing of Raila Amollo Odinga.
Behind the speeches, fanfare, and nostalgic tributes lies a deeper, high-stakes struggle: the battle to control Kenya’s single largest political grouping, a party whose national appeal and unmatched grassroots network make it the crown jewel of any coalition hoping to form government after 2027.
And for the first time in its history, ODM enters a major anniversary without its founding leader—and with multiple factions already sharpening their knives.
A Party Too Big to Ignore—Even for the President
ODM is, by every political measure, Kenya’s biggest political movement—spanning all 47 counties, commanding historic strongholds at the Coast, in the Nyanza lake belt, Western, Nairobi, parts of Rift Valley and the Northeastern frontier. Its branch presence is deeper than any other party, with a local grassroots network that has outlived multiple election cycles.
This explains why President William Ruto and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi—both former ODM Pentagon members—have accepted invitations to grace the Mombasa event.
Any political figure with designs on the 2027 State House race understands one truth: no one becomes President in Kenya by ignoring ODM.
Whether to work with it, weaken it, or control it—its weight is unavoidable.
Junet Mohamed himself hinted at this when announcing the high-profile guest list. The presence of Ruto, Mudavadi, and possibly Uhuru Kenyatta makes the event not simply a celebration —it is an audition stage for alliances.
ODM at a Crossroads: Three Factions, One Future
With Raila Odinga gone, ODM must decide what it wants to be—and how it will survive.
Inside the party, three factions are emerging:
1. The Hardliners: Orengo & Sifuna Push for a Liberal Hard Stance
Led by Siaya Governor James Orengo and Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, this group believes ODM must maintain a purist, uncompromising stance—no collaboration with the Kenya Kwanza government, no political deals, and no softening of its traditional reformist posture.
They argue that:
ODM’s identity is at risk of dilution
Cooperation with government will weaken the party
The legacy of Raila demands principled resistance
This faction sees itself as the true guardian of ODM orthodoxy.
2. The Youth Wave: Babu Owino’s Push to Exit Broad-Based Government
A bold, emergent youth bloc—led by Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and other younger MPs—is pushing an even more radical position.
They want ODM:
Fully out of Kenya’s Broad-Based Government
Re-energized from the streets
Reconnected with younger voters, who they believe feel alienated
To them, ODM’s future lies in energizing Gen-Z and urban youth who are hungry for a confrontational, activist-driven party—not a negotiating one.
3. The Conservative Majority: Stability First, Politics Later
But the most powerful faction is the conservative bloc—comprising long-serving party officials, veteran organisers, county chairpersons, and MPs who understand ODM’s machinery better than anyone else.
This group, though less noisy, is the true centre of gravity.
Their argument is simple:
“Stabilize the party first, work with government where necessary, and identify a credible successor for Raila during the electioneering phase of 2027.”
They believe the party cannot afford infighting, nor can it gamble with its future by antagonising the government while internally disorganized.
Their priority:
Keep ODM intact
Maintain national stability
Leverage cooperation with government while rebuilding
Guide a smooth succession instead of a chaotic takeover
And with numbers, resources, and party organs on their side, the conservatives are poised to win the internal battle.
Why the 20th Anniversary Matters More Than Ever
This weekend’s celebrations are not just a tribute to Raila Odinga—they are the first major arena where these factions will test their strength in public.
What happens in Mombasa will shape:
The tone of ODM’s transition
The alliances of 2026
The coalitions of 2027
And ultimately, the next President of Kenya
ODM knows its value. Kenya knows it. Even State House knows it.
This is why the stakes are so high.
The Succession Question: Who Fills Raila’s Shoes?
ODM’s next big headache—and its biggest risk—is identifying a successor who can command:
National appeal
Regional loyalty
Party cohesion
Coalition-building credibility
Names will be floated quietly this weekend. No formal endorsement will be made. But the search for “the true successor of Raila Amollo Odinga” officially begins at this anniversary.
Expect:
Corridor meetings
Closed-door negotiations
Quiet lobbying
Subtle signalling from major guests
The person who emerges from these conversations will likely lead ODM into 2027.
What to Watch During the Celebrations
1. Who sits where and with whom?
Seating arrangements will reveal alliances.
2. Speeches from Ruto, Mudavadi, Orengo, Babu, Sifuna and governors.
Their tone will indicate which faction is gaining ground.
3. Announcements (or lack thereof) on future cooperation with government.
4. The language used when referencing Raila’s legacy.
It will expose ideological leanings.
5. Reactions from grassroots leaders attending from all counties.
ODM Is Still the Party to Beat
Twenty years after its birth in the heat of the 2005 constitutional referendum, ODM remains:
Kenya’s biggest political base
The best organized political machine
The most enduring reformist movement
A party with unmatched national and grassroots reach
Anyone planning to form government after 2027 must have a stake in ODM—either as partner, successor, or rival.
As the lights come on in Mombasa and the founders’ dinner kicks off, one truth becomes unavoidable:
ODM’s next chapter will not be written by nostalgia.
It will be written by the faction that wins this internal war—
and by the leader who rises to fill Raila Odinga’s enormous shoes.
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