In what’s shaping up to be a dramatic prelude to the 2027 general elections, recent by-election results have laid bare both the rising strength of Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) — led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua — and the resilience of his rivals in the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA). While Gachagua’s DCP scored big in two wards — Narok Town Ward and Kariobangi North Ward — the party came agonizingly close to snatching a parliamentary seat at Mbeere North Constituency, ultimately falling short to UDA.
As reported, DCP clinched two important ward seats in the by-elections:
In Narok Town Ward, DCP’s Douglas Twala Masikonde won with 6,007 votes.
In Kariobangi North, DCP’s David Wanyoike Warui secured 2,282 votes, beating candidates from other major parties.
These wins reinforced a message that DCP — widely considered a fringe concern — is steadily building grassroots strength across diverse regions.
It underscored that DCP’s influence isn’t limited to its traditional strongholds; the party can turn out voters in both rural areas (Narok) and informal-urban Nairobi wards.
At the same time, the parliamentary by-election in Mbeere North proved a breath-taking showdown. Leo Wamuthende of UDA was declared the winner with 15,802 votes. His closest rival, DCP-aligned (via a coalition with Democratic Party – DP) candidate Newton Kariuki Karish, pulled in 15,308 votes. A razor-thin margin of just 494 votes separated victory from defeat.
Prior to the election, DCP had officially withdrawn a direct candidacy for Mbeere North and thrown its weight behind Newton Karish — a move widely seen as part of a broader opposition unity push ahead of 2027.
And indeed, Gachagua personally campaigned in the region — publicly declaring that Mbeere North “stands at the centre of Kenya’s liberation journey.”
But in the end, UDA’s ground organisation and perhaps deeper roots in Embu County narrowly prevailed.
DCP is real — and dangerous. The easy ward wins showed that Gachagua isn’t just a talking point: he can deliver votes. That’s a powerful foundation, especially as DCP seeks to expand ahead of the 2027 general election.
Even when DCP backs down, it still counts. In Mbeere North, despite having formally stepped aside, DCP’s influence via its endorsement of Karish made the race competitive. A 494-vote loss in a constituency long considered UDA territory is a signal worth watching.
UDA remains formidable — for now. Wamuthende’s narrow but decisive victory underlines that UDA’s machinery, brand, or organisational discipline still commands loyalty — especially outside DCP’s traditional zones.
The battleground is shifting. Mbeere North, Narok, Kariobangi North — all these by-elections spread across different regions show politics is no longer about “home turf.” Voters are increasingly fluid, and parties must earn every vote.
2027 won’t be predictable. With DCP rising, UDA defending old ground, and opposition coalitions forming — national politics ahead of 2027 is suddenly wide open. Ignoring Gachagua’s reach would be a grave miscalculation.
Even in defeat, DCP (and by extension Gachagua) showed resilience and resilience. The Mbeere North near-miss proves that even where DCP chooses not to field a candidate, its endorsement carries weight. Meanwhile, the wins in Narok and Nairobi show DCP’s appeal is not confined.
What this signals is a broader shift in Kenya’s political landscape — away from tribal or regional dominance, toward a more fluid, performance- and message-driven competition.
For anybody dismissing Gachagua as yesterday’s man — the recent by-election cycle should be a wake-up call. If DCP keeps building on this momentum, 2027 might not just be a rerun of the establishment vs opposition script. It could be a whole new show.
Featured Image: David Wanyoike Warui
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