Kenya is bracing for a hotter, drier start to 2026 after the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) released its latest weather outlook covering December 2025 to February 2026 — a forecast that warns of depressed rains, warmer-than-normal temperatures, and prolonged dry spells across much of the country.
In the report signed by Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki, KMD says most regions will record near-average to below-average rainfall in December before transitioning into largely sunny, dry, and warm conditions throughout January and February.
December: Uneven Rains, Long Dry Spells
According to the forecast, the final month of 2025 will see patchy and inconsistent rainfall across the country:
Most regions: Near- to below-average rainfall
Northeastern Kenya: Highly depressed rainfall
Southeastern lowlands: Some significant rainfall early in the month
Isolated heavy showers may still occur despite prolonged dry spells
KMD projects that the October–November–December (OND) rains will cease between the first and fourth weeks of December, marking an earlier-than-usual end to the short rains season.
Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average nationwide.
January–February 2026: Hot, Dry, and Mostly Rain-Free
From January, Kenya enters a dominantly dry and warm phase.
However, a few regions may still record light, brief showers:
Lake Victoria Basin
Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi)
South Rift Valley
Southeastern lowlands and parts of the Coast
Northern Kenya will see some early December showers before shifting into extended dry conditions.
KMD attributes the forecast pattern to ongoing La Niña conditions, which are expected to persist into early 2026 before easing into ENSO-neutral status between January and March. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—which worsened drought in parts of East Africa—continues to weaken and is expected to return to neutral levels in December.
Regional Forecast Breakdown (December 2025)
1. Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West & South Rift Valley
Counties: Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Busia, Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, West Pokot, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Baringo, Nakuru, Laikipia, Narok
Conditions: Intermittent rainfall with breaks
Rain amounts: Near to below average
2. Northwestern Kenya (Turkana, Samburu)
Conditions: Sunny, hot, largely dry
Rain: Isolated showers, but totals remain below average
3. Highlands East & Central Kenya (Including Nairobi)
Counties: Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nairobi
Conditions: Intermittent rainfall
Rain amounts: Near to below average
4. Northeastern Kenya (Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo)
Conditions: Predominantly hot and dry
Rain: Highly depressed throughout December
5. Southeastern Lowlands
Counties: Kajiado, Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta, Tana River
Conditions: Occasional rainfall
Rain amounts: Near to below average
6. Coastal Region (Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu)
Conditions: Intermittent rainfall early in the month
Rain amounts: Below average in many areas, including Kilifi and Lamu
Three-Month Outlook: December 2025 – February 2026
December: Intermittent rainfall in many regions
January & February: Predominantly dry and sunny countrywide
Southern Lake Victoria Basin counties (Kisii, Nyamira, Bomet, Narok) may see isolated rainfall days in early 2026
Coast: Some rainfall in December, dry thereafter
Northern Kenya: Mostly dry across the entire period
Temperatures: Warmer than average nationwide
Kenya should prepare for a scorching start to 2026, with limited rainfall after December and prolonged hot, dry periods across most counties.
Farmers, water managers, health officials, and disaster-response agencies are urged to plan accordingly, especially in drought-prone regions where La Niña’s effects are likely to be felt most.
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