An interesting entrant in the race is Siaya Woman Representative Dr. Christine Ombaka.

Ombaka has the grassroots energy and networking to upstage the incumbent Elisha Odhiambo Akuba who has lately lost popularity for wavering between being a member of the ruling party UDA and Raila’s ODM.

The matrix in Gem politics is, however, complex, tricky, unpredictable and full of last minute surprises. Already there are five candidates who are coming out as clear-cut frontrunners among a pack of several.

Idleness among youth has contributed to insecurity in Gem Constituency making security a key agenda in the election. Photo : Facebook

The incumbent Elisha Odhiambo Akuba is, nonetheless, a politician you can never easily write off. He has the stamina to run the race, although his credibility has been largely dented by the wrong signals he sent out in the last two years that he’s against the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party which in extension is loosely politically interpreted as fighting Raila Amollo Odinga.

Akuba has also lost ground for involvement in two election circles marked by violence and a lacklustre second term which he has spent largely looking over his shoulder running from unspecified enemies.

Dr. Christine Ombaka comes with a wealth of experience and know-how of the Siaya political terrain but with a very meagre development track record in Gem. Shockingly an audit of the numerous projects commissioned by the Siaya MP reveals that, for yet-to-be-determined reasons, she concentrated on Alego-Usonga, Ugunja and Rarieda to the exclusion of Gem.

Ombaka has the gender advantage in a field full of men but it may also be her undoing as she is known not to have a stomach for the violence that defines Gem politics. If the constellation aligns properly, Dr Christine Ombaka may be the candidate to watch in this race but this is supposing she beats another formidable and admittedly more tactical candidate in the form of Kisumu City County Manager Michael Abala Wanga.

Abala Wanga comes to the race with the blessings of a meticulous record as the best performing Manager Kisumu City has ever had. He’s currently the Chairman of City and Municipal Managers Caucus, Kenya, and his name is now synonymous with efforts that have made Kisumu one of the cleanest and better managed cities in Kenya.

Side-by-side image of the three clear frontrunners in the 2027 Gem Constituency Parliamentary Race. Photo: dalanews.co.ke

Having excelled in the murkier rough-and-tumble politics of Kisumu, for Abala Wanga the violent politics of Gem Constituency may appear like a Sunday School outing.

Facts on the ground, however indicate that a few Members of the County Assembly are supportive of the candidacy of Dr. Jalang’o Midiwo. In this race, unless things change drastically, Jalang’o doesn’t stand a chance against the two horses — Christine Ombaka and Abala Wanga.

Jalang’o Midiwo comes into contention if the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party grants him a nomination, otherwise on a head-to-head contest he would have to work overtime on the perception that he’s being imposed on the electorate.

Samuel Opot is another candidate with very unpredictable chances in this race. He falls under the category of others who may need more than conventional mathematical algorithms to win this race.

Despite having a robust equatorial climate, water is still a big issue in the politics of Gem Constituency. Photo: Samson Wire, CGS

So how is a contest between the two horses predicted to turn out? Three scenarios present themselves.

In our second story on this series of articles on Siaya County Elections Countdown we will be delving into the intricacies of clan politics and outsider influence in Gem Constituency and how the same relate to the 2027 contest.