A new TIFA Research survey paints a paradoxical picture of Kenya’s electoral mood: citizens remain determined to vote in the 2027 general elections, yet skepticism about whether the polls will be credible lingers just as strongly.
The Voter Spirit vs. Institutional Doubt
The headline figure is clear — voter enthusiasm is alive. An overwhelming 94% of Kenyans who trust the IEBC intend to vote in 2027. Even more surprising is that 70% of those who do not trust the IEBC at all still say they will show up on election day. In other words, Kenyans are ready to participate despite doubts about the very institution overseeing the process.
This “vote regardless” mentality suggests that elections are now deeply embedded in Kenya’s political culture. Citizens seem to view voting not just as a civic duty but also as the primary means of shaping leadership, no matter the risks of manipulation or mismanagement.
But the flip side is equally striking. The same survey shows that nearly half of Kenyans doubt the IEBC can deliver a free and fair election in 2027. That tension — a strong desire to vote coupled with fragile faith in the referee — may become the defining feature of the next electoral cycle.
Why Kenyans Doubt the IEBC
When asked about their concerns, respondents gave clear answers:
Political interference and state manipulation (48%) top the list. Memories of past elections — from the contested 2007 polls to the nullified 2017 presidential election — remain fresh. Many believe political elites still wield too much influence over the commission.
Mistrust of IEBC leadership (34%) comes next, with doubts focused on the recently appointed commissioners and chairperson. For many, leadership reshuffles have not translated into institutional credibility.
Fear of violence (13%) continues to haunt Kenya’s electoral imagination, particularly for communities that bore the brunt of past clashes.
Technology failures (3%), such as results transmission breakdowns, highlight concerns about the reliability of Kenya’s digital voting infrastructure.
The rest (5%) either cited miscellaneous concerns or did not specify.
Together, political interference and mistrust of IEBC leadership account for nearly four out of every five doubts — making these the key fault lines to watch as 2027 approaches.
Lessons from the Numbers
The survey’s methodology adds weight to its findings. Conducted between August 23 and September 3, 2025, TIFA reached 2,024 respondents through telephone interviews in both Kiswahili and English. With a margin of error of just ±2.17%, the results are statistically robust. Coverage spanned nine regions, ensuring a national spread: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift, and Western.
The breadth of this data underscores the consistency of skepticism across Kenya, not just in historically contested regions.
Implications for 2027
The paradox revealed by TIFA suggests three critical dynamics for Kenya’s democracy:
1. Resilient Voter Determination – Citizens are unwilling to abandon the ballot, even if the process is flawed. This resilience may help protect democracy from outright apathy.
2. A Crisis of Credibility – Without reforms that strengthen independence and transparency, the IEBC risks going into 2027 as a referee already mistrusted by half the country. That could inflame post-election disputes.
3. The Role of Political Elites – With political interference flagged as the top concern, much will depend on how parties, state actors, and the judiciary handle the run-up to the polls. The IEBC’s fate, and Kenya’s stability, may be less about its systems than about whether politicians allow them to work.
Kenya’s electoral story has always been double-edged: a vibrant, engaged citizenry set against fragile institutions. The 2025 TIFA survey confirms that this pattern is likely to persist into 2027. Kenyans are ready to vote. But unless confidence in the IEBC is rebuilt, the next general election could once again test the limits of the country’s democracy.
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