When Siaya County went to the polls in August 2022, few would have predicted just how tight the race for governor would become. By mid-campaign, ODM’s James Orengo — a national figure, liberation hero, and longtime ally of Raila Odinga — was facing an unexpected surge from Engineer Nicholas Odero Gumbo, whose “Wajonya” movement had taken hold across the county.
For the first time in Siaya’s political history, ODM’s dominance looked vulnerable. Gumbo’s message of homegrown leadership and integrity had struck a deep chord, threatening to fracture the party’s traditional stronghold.
It was at this critical moment that the Orengo ticket was dramatically reshaped — through two decisive interventions that would change the race’s trajectory:
the inclusion of William Oduol Denge as Orengo’s running mate, and Raila Amollo Odinga’s impassioned call for a “six-piece voting pattern” across Siaya and the wider Luo Nyanza bloc.
Together, these two moves rescued a ticket that had appeared on the verge of collapse.
How Oduol Rescued a Faltering Campaign
By early 2022, Gumbo’s campaign had gathered formidable momentum. His reformist message, grounded in technical competence and grassroots accessibility, resonated powerfully with voters across Rarieda, Bondo, Gem, and Alego-Usonga.
Governor Orengo, though commanding national respect, was struggling to project himself as a county-level reformer. The perception that ODM was recycling national figures for local leadership posts left sections of Siaya’s electorate restless.
Enter William Oduol Denge — a technocrat, economist, and integrity-driven reformist whose “Siaya Manyien” (New Siaya) slogan embodied the people’s hunger for a clean break from old political habits. His inclusion on the ODM ticket re-energized the base and drew in undecided voters.
From his home base in Alego-Usonga, Oduol galvanized entire wards, transforming the campaign’s tone from defensive to hopeful. His message of accountability, fairness, and modern governance extended beyond Alego, gaining traction in Ugenya, Gem, and Rarieda, where he came to be viewed as the face of change.
But even then, ODM’s survival hinged on another factor: Raila Odinga’s clarion call for the “six-piece” ODM vote. That message — repeated in rallies across Siaya — was instrumental in uniting a fracturing electorate under the party banner and reminding voters of ODM’s legacy.
The combination of Oduol’s credibility and Raila’s influence proved potent. Orengo narrowly secured victory with 220,349 votes against Gumbo’s 147,558, a margin of 72,791 votes that belied the tense realities on the ground.
From Running Mate to Reformist Rebel
What followed after the elections reshaped Siaya politics even further. Barely a year into office, relations between Governor Orengo and Deputy Governor Oduol deteriorated sharply.
Oduol began to publicly question the management of county funds and the integrity of procurement processes. His insistence on transparency clashed with entrenched interests within the county administration.
The standoff culminated in his impeachment by the Siaya County Assembly in 2023 — a move that backfired spectacularly when the Senate overturned the decision, citing insufficient evidence and procedural irregularities.
Oduol emerged from that ordeal not as a casualty, but as a symbol of resistance — a man willing to challenge impunity, even from within the system he helped create. His “Siaya Manyien” slogan was reborn, now infused with the moral power of survival and defiance.
The Oduol–Gumbo Pact: A Calculated Transition
Amid this backdrop, whispers began to circulate across Siaya’s political landscape — of a quiet understanding between Oduol and Eng. Nicholas Odero Gumbo.
According to reliable local sources, the two reformists have held exploratory discussions on a joint political front. The logic is both strategic and generational: Gumbo, having made two credible attempts at the governorship (2017 and 2022), could now pass the baton to Oduol, positioning him as the fresh face of a united reform bloc while he provides structural and logistical backing.
This rumoured arrangement is seen as a political masterstroke — merging Gumbo’s deep networks, financial base, and hard-earned credibility with Oduol’s reformist image, youthful energy, and moral standing.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Political math tells the story clearly:
Orengo (ODM): 220,349 votes
Gumbo (UDM): 147,558 votes
Registered voters (Siaya, 2022): 533,595
Turnout: ~71%
Analysts estimate that Oduol’s inclusion in 2022 brought in between 60,000 and 80,000 votes that salvaged the ODM ticket. Without him — and without Raila’s “six-piece” call — Orengo might not have crossed the finish line.
If those same Oduol-aligned votes are redirected to an Oduol–Gumbo ticket, paired with Gumbo’s 147,000 solid base, the numbers point to a clear path to victory:
147,558 (Gumbo base) + 60,000 (Oduol swing) = 207,558 votes — nearly level with Orengo’s 2022 tally.
At 75,000 swing votes, the alliance surpasses Orengo’s count outright.
In other words, with a united front, Orengo’s margin of safety evaporates.
Why Orengo Should Be Concerned
Despite his incumbency and enduring loyalty to Raila Odinga, Governor Orengo faces a paradox: his intellectual and national reputation may not shield him from local fatigue.
The Oduol–Gumbo ticket represents something Siaya voters increasingly desire — continuity of ideals but change in approach. It is not anti-ODM; it is post-ODM — rooted in reform, transparency, and generational renewal.
Oduol’s anti-graft crusade has cemented his moral authority, while Gumbo’s administrative competence and cross-constituency appeal provide the organizational backbone. Together, they embody what Siaya’s youth, professionals, and grassroots voters describe as the true “Siaya Manyien.”
The Verdict: 2027 Could Redefine Siaya
As 2027 approaches, the contours of Siaya’s politics are shifting fast. The county that once symbolized ODM’s unassailable dominance now stands at the edge of a political transition.
If Gumbo indeed steps aside to back Oduol — as persistent whispers suggest — it will not be an act of surrender but one of strategic engineering. A deliberate move to usher in a new leadership era grounded in merit, accountability, and inclusive governance.
And in a poetic twist, the man who in 2022 saved Orengo’s ticket could, in 2027, be the one to end it.
Verified Data Sources:
– IEBC Siaya Gubernatorial Results (2022): Orengo 220,349; Gumbo 147,558.
– IEBC Registered Voters & Turnout (2022): 533,595; ≈71%.
– ODM Nomination Announcement (May 2022): Orengo names William Oduol as running mate.
– Senate Proceedings (2023): Senate rejects Oduol impeachment.
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