Kenya’s economy is booming — but not everywhere.
A new Devolution Budget Watch report by the Parliamentary Budget Office has laid bare the country’s deepening regional inequality, revealing that nearly half of Kenya’s wealth is generated by just five counties, while 16 counties together contribute a paltry 7.5 per cent of the national GDP.
At the heart of this imbalance is Nairobi, which alone accounts for a staggering 29.5 per cent of Kenya’s Gross Domestic Product, cementing its status as the country’s undisputed economic powerhouse.
Trailing far behind are Kiambu (5.6 per cent), Nakuru and Mombasa (5.2 per cent each), and Machakos (3.4 per cent). Collectively, these five counties generate almost half of the country’s total economic output, driven by dense populations, superior infrastructure, vibrant trade, and diversified industries.
The report describes the top five as peri-urban economic hubs, thriving on a mix of commerce, services, manufacturing, logistics, and emerging industries. Nairobi’s dominance is further reinforced by projects such as the Nairobi Expressway, which have strengthened connectivity and business efficiency.
Beyond the elite group, a second tier of counties is making steady, if modest, contributions. Meru (3 per cent), Kisumu (2.5 per cent), Uasin Gishu (2.4 per cent), Kilifi and Kakamega (2.1 per cent each), and Murang’a, Bungoma, and Nyeri (1.9 per cent each) form the backbone of Kenya’s mid-level economic performers.
Counties including Kisii, Narok, Kericho, Kajiado, Nandi, Bomet, Trans Nzoia, and Embu contribute between 1.8 and 1.4 per cent, while Kwale, Migori, Kirinyaga, Kitui, Homa Bay, Nyandarua, Makueni, Nyamira, Turkana, and Siaya hover around the 1 to 1.2 per cent mark.
The Forgotten 16 Counties
At the bottom of the ladder sit 16 counties, together accounting for just 7.5 per cent of Kenya’s GDP.
These include Isiolo, Samburu, Tana River, and Lamu (0.3 per cent each), Wajir and Mandera (0.5 per cent), Garissa and Tharaka Nithi (0.6 per cent), as well as Marsabit, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo, Vihiga, Busia, Laikipia, and Elgeyo Marakwet.
“Many of these regions remain marginalised, grappling with drought, weak infrastructure, limited investment and poor market access,” the report notes.
Despite the glaring disparities, the report highlights encouraging manufacturing growth in several unexpected counties.
Vihiga (25.7 per cent) and Bomet (24.6 per cent) posted the strongest manufacturing growth, followed by Nandi (15.2 per cent), Machakos (15 per cent), and West Pokot (14.8 per cent).
This surge has been driven largely by small-scale agro-processing, cottage industries, and local value chains, offering a glimpse of what targeted investment can achieve.
Counties such as Busia, Laikipia, Meru, and Tana River recorded steady growth of 8 to 12 per cent, buoyed by improved infrastructure, better market access, and rising private sector participation.
Still, traditional industrial anchors remain dominant. Nairobi, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Mombasa continue to account for the bulk of manufacturing output, with Nairobi recording 8.2 per cent growth in 2023 and Mombasa an impressive 14.8 per cent.
Encouragingly, historically marginalised counties like Mandera (10.6 per cent), Marsabit (9.2 per cent), and Garissa (2.8 per cent) are beginning to show signs of life, particularly in livestock-based industries and construction materials.
“With sustained investment in energy, transport, and trade infrastructure, these regions could become Kenya’s next industrial frontiers,” the report says.
The Devolution Budget Watch 2025, which evaluates county budget execution for the 2025/26 financial year, warns that inequitable resource allocation, delayed Exchequer disbursements, slow uptake of e-procurement, and ballooning wage bills are stifling growth in weaker counties.
It urges the Senate, County Assemblies, policymakers, and citizens to push for stronger fiscal accountability and smarter investment decisions to unlock the untapped potential of underperforming regions.
As Kenya pushes its development agenda, the report delivers a sobering verdict: unless the wealth gap between counties is urgently addressed, devolution risks entrenching inequality instead of curing it.
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