As the curtain slowly falls on 2025, Kenya is once again sliding into familiar political mode — quiet maneuvering, noisy declarations and high-stakes realignments ahead of the 2027 General Election. But amid the growing drumbeat of campaigns, one question dominates political discourse both online and on the ground:
Is President William Ruto already on course for a second term?
A close look at the political chessboard, economic indicators and policy execution suggests that — despite mounting criticism — the odds may be quietly tilting in his favour.
On one side sits the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), now buttressed by a controversial but stabilizing broad-based government that includes former rivals from the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and figures linked to retired President Uhuru Kenyatta.
On the other side is an opposition coalition still searching for cohesion:
Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua
Wiper Democratic Movement of Kalonzo Musyoka
Jubilee Party remnants loyal to Uhuru Kenyatta
DAP-Kenya of Eugene Wamalwa
NARC-Kenya / Liberal Patriotic Front of Martha Karua
Democratic Party led by former AG Justin Muturi, among others
While pluralism is healthy for democracy, history shows that fragmented opposition coalitions often struggle against incumbency, especially one armed with state power, numbers in Parliament and a widening political tent.
Perhaps President Ruto’s most consequential move was co-opting former adversaries into government. The inclusion of ODM heavyweights John Mbadi, Ali Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya and Beatrice Askul, alongside Uhuru-aligned figures like Mutahi Kagwe, fundamentally altered the political climate.
The result?
Reduced street protests
Contained post-election tensions
A calmer investment and governance environment after the June 2024 Gen Z protests that nearly pushed the country to the brink
In Kenyan politics, stability often wins votes, and Ruto has leaned heavily into that reality.
Critics say “no.” Supporters say “slowly, but surely.” The truth lies somewhere in between.
The Kenya Kwanza 2022 manifesto, anchored on the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), prioritised five pillars:
Agriculture
MSME Economy
Housing & Settlements
Healthcare
Digital Superhighway & Creative Economy
While implementation has been uneven, tangible progress is visible.
According to Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) data:
Inflation dropped to 4.5% in November 2025, down from 9.1% in 2022
Housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel prices declined by 1.6%
In a country where the cost of living often decides elections, these figures are politically significant.
On December 19, 2025, President Ruto handed over 4,536 housing units at Mukuru, Nairobi, benefiting over 1,080 families. More than 3,000 additional units are already complete, while over one million Kenyans have registered for the Affordable Housing Programme.
For many low- and middle-income earners, this is not theory — it’s a roof over their heads.
The transition from NHIF to the Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF) under the Social Health Insurance Act (2023) has been rocky but expansive:
28+ million Kenyans registered under the Social Health Authority (SHA)
Up from 7.5–8 million previously covered by NHIF
Despite operational challenges flagged by Parliament’s Health Committee, SHIF is widely seen as more inclusive and equitable, aligning with Article 43 of the Constitution on the right to healthcare.
The revamped Inua Jamii programme now delivers cash transfers to:
Elderly persons (70+)
Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVC)
Persons with severe disabilities
Payments are routed through E-Citizen and M-Pesa agents, cutting red tape and bringing services closer to beneficiaries — a quiet but impactful reform.
To be clear, Kenya’s problems have not vanished:
Youth unemployment
Public debt
Food insecurity
Pockets of insecurity
Pains of implementing Competency-Based Education (CBE)
Yet, for many voters, the question will not be whether the government is perfect — but whether it is trying, learning and correcting course.
While the opposition remains vocal, its messaging often revolves around rejecting Kenya Kwanza initiatives wholesale, without offering a compelling, unified alternative economic vision.
In elections, voters punish chaos and reward coherence.
If elections were held today, President William Ruto would likely lean on:
A broad political coalition
Improved macroeconomic indicators
Visible social and housing projects
A narrative of stability over upheaval
Whether that will be enough in 2027 remains to be seen — but dismissing Ruto’s re-election prospects would be a serious misreading of Kenya’s political mood.
— Dr. Maurice Abiero Awuora
Strategy expert, public policy analyst and 2027 Bondo Constituency aspirant
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