The Ugunja Constituency by-election set for November 27, 2025, is fast shaping into one of the most unpredictable political showdowns in Siaya County. With nine aspirants cleared or eyeing the race, the battle to replace Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has grown into a contest of loyalties, party structures, grassroots influence, and gender dynamics.
Wandayi’s exit has not only created a vacancy but also ignited a miniature war for ODM’s soul in Ugunja. President William Ruto’s declaration that UDA will not field a candidate further altered the battlefield, with Kenya Kwanza choosing to rally behind a single “unity candidate” in partnership with ODM.
But beneath the talk of “unity” lies a bruising grassroots fight. ODM’s nomination, widely seen as the golden key to Parliament, is at the center of the storm. And with multiple aspirants laying claim to the party ticket, the contest has tightened rather than eased.
While nine candidates are in play, the ODM primaries are where the stakes are highest. Analysts point to a four-horse sprint: Joseph Otieno Alur, Moses Omondi, Eng. ZB Owino, and latecomer Lillian Akinyi Aketch.
Each brings a unique strength, but also vulnerabilities that make the race unpredictable.
ODM Party hopeful Joseph Otieno Alur has longstanding grassroots history having contested in Ugunja twice before, he also enjoys extensive loyalty networks and undeniable emotional connection with voters. In local political mantra he may appear “entitled” to the seat but overconfidence and modest financial clout could be his undoing in the homestretch.
Another ODM hopeful, Moses Omondi is backed by CS Wandayi and enjoys vast administrative experience as well as Wandayi’s political machinery. However , the “imposed” tag has refused to leave him. His Karuoth roots have raised identity questions.
A third ODM Party hopeful is Eng. Frederick ZB Owino with astute professional credentials and much respect as a technocrat but with considerably weak grassroots visibility and impact. Apart from the noise and razzmatazz on social media he lacks a clear political stronghold. Word in the grapevine has it, however, that he could be the compromise candidate in a field blistering with heat.
Lillian Akinyi Aketch (only female candidate) has presented herself under the ODM Party banner but there’s a possibility she could decamp anytime given that her goal is not to win the race but make an impact for future capital. She, however, represents fresh change, appeals to youth and women voters tired of male-dominated politics. She may lack financial muscle to match male rivals in the race and she is yet to prove deep mobilization networks, but her entry has certainly tilted the calculus away from initial favourites or frontrunners.
Chris Budo Wuod Nyadeje has refused to be hoodwinked by ODM Party mandarins and is vying on a KANU ticket. Return to KANU is symbolic nostalgia and it points at a candy bold enough to run outside ODM chokehold on Ugunja. Budo may seriously appeal to protest voters, but are they many enough to tilt the equation in his favor?
MJ Okumu is an Independent hopeful whose quite, un-presumptive attitude and illustrious legal expertise coupled with articulacy and policy-driven narratives could make him the obvious winner if the race was held in the freer western hemisphere. Incidentally he is among the leading candidates with less grassroots engagement and seriously struggles to connect emotionally with voters.
Fredrick Oyugi Dor initially linked to UDA Party is the wildcat in the contest. If he decides to come in on a different banner he would cause ripples because of his bold personality and name recognition from early campaigns. President Ruto’s withdrawal of UDA left him stranded; unclear platform weakens his bid.
Sam Okoyo is an Independent with a record for strong grassroots mobilization and youthful appeal. Word on the grapevine is that he’s working on a shoestring budget with thin resources. He therefore has limited reach beyond village networks.
The Gender Factor: Spotlight on Lillian Akinyi Aketch
Lillian Akinyi Aketch has quietly emerged as a wild card. As the only woman in the race, her campaign is rooted in the call for inclusive leadership. She has leaned on the support of youth groups, women’s SACCOs, and faith-based organizations that see her candidacy as a chance to break Ugunja’s cycle of male-dominated representation.
“Men have had their turn. It’s time for fresh ideas and new leadership,” she told a rally in Sidindi.
Her strength lies in mobilizing silent voters — particularly women and first-time voters — who often stay away from the polls. However, her biggest challenge will be building the financial and logistical war chest to match seasoned rivals with entrenched networks.
Why the Race is Too Close to Call
Otieno Alur has loyalty but risks fatigue if voters see him as yesterday’s candidate.
Moses Omondi has Wandayi’s endorsement but faces local resentment of “imposition.”
Eng. ZB Owino embodies technocracy but lacks charisma.
Lillian Akinyi Aketch offers change and inclusivity, but her structures are still untested.
The independents and smaller party candidates could split protest votes, further muddling the picture.
Beyond Ugunja: The 2027 Undercurrents
This by-election is not just about who becomes MP. It is also a litmus test for ODM’s dominance in Luo Nyanza as Raila Odinga recalibrates his succession politics, and for Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition as it tries to soften its image in a region historically hostile to it.
If ODM bungles the nomination by imposing a candidate, it risks low voter turnout and rebellion that could erode its iron grip before 2027.
With just a month-and-half to go, Ugunja’s by-election remains wide open. Unlike past contests where ODM rode unchallenged, this one is marked by fractured loyalties, gender dynamics, and the shadows of national power deals.
In homes, markets, and churches, one question dominates:
Who truly speaks for Ugunja?
The answer, it seems, will not be clear until the final ballot is counted on November 27.
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