Siaya County’s political landscape has entered a critical stage, with Governor James Orengo’s chances of reelection growing thinner by the day amid deepening factional rifts within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The 2027 gubernatorial contest has now clearly narrowed to a high-stakes three-way race between former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo, Deputy Governor William Oduol, and County Assembly Speaker George Okode.
Orengo, the veteran lawyer and first-term governor, is under intense fire for aligning with ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna’s faction while skipping a major rally organized by party leader Oburu Oginga. Prominent voices including National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi and Suna East MP Junet Mohamed have openly called for his defeat, accusing him of betraying the Odinga legacy and fracturing party unity. Orengo has responded defiantly, rejecting impeachment threats and alleging external meddling by President William Ruto in ODM affairs following Raila Odinga’s death in October 2025.
The governor’s weakening position has cleared the path for formidable challengers. Nicholas Gumbo, Orengo’s longtime rival from the 2022 contest, has returned to ODM with strong backing from Oburu Oginga. Gumbo already holds a UDA party ticket as a fallback, but speculation is rife about whether he will decamp fully to contest the ODM primaries or retain his options. His public vow to “send [Orengo] home” has intensified the battle.
Deputy Governor William Oduol, who announced his gubernatorial bid in January 2026, is positioning himself as the candidate for genuine reform and better service delivery. As an ODM insider with deep grassroots support, Oduol carries significant executive experience and appeals to voters frustrated with the current administration.
The race has been electrified by the silent but powerful entry of County Assembly Speaker George Okode. Backed by a majority of MCAs and roughly half of Siaya’s MPs, Okode brings unprecedented dynamics to Siaya politics. Unlike many Siaya politicians, he never relied on the infamous “six-piece” voting strategy to rise; his influence stems from genuine support, legislative experience, and proven ability to steer county assembly debates and reforms. Hailing from Rarieda constituency — the same as Gumbo — Okode’s candidacy complicates ticket-building, as a Gumbo-Okode pairing would violate Siaya’s unwritten rule of regional and clan balance.
Siaya digital media strategist Lawrence Jeffrey forecasts an Oduol-Okode ticket as the most likely strong combination. “The only real question now is who runs as governor and who takes the deputy slot,” Jeffrey noted, highlighting how such a pairing could merge Oduol’s executive track record with Okode’s legislative clout and broad institutional backing.
With ODM still navigating succession questions in the post-Raila era, Siaya’s 2027 race is no longer just about personalities — it is a defining moment for the future of Luo Nyanza politics. Orengo’s fading dominance, Gumbo’s high-risk party calculus, Oduol’s insider challenge, and Okode’s disruptive entry have turned the contest into one of the most unpredictable and consequential in recent memory. The battle for Siaya has truly begun.
