Four months after the death of Raila Odinga on October 15, 2025, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) – once Kenya’s unshakeable opposition powerhouse – is fracturing beyond recognition. At the center of the storm stands Siaya Senator Dr. Oburu Oginga, Raila’s elder brother and the party’s current leader. But is Oburu truly to blame for the deepening cracks, or is he merely holding together a party unraveling under impossible pressures?
The infighting exploded into public view with the dramatic ouster of Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, a vocal critic of any perceived sellout to President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Oburu-chaired National Executive Committee meetings accused Sifuna of indiscipline, mixing personal views with official positions, and sowing confusion. Sifuna’s removal sparked parallel rallies, factional accusations of greed and betrayal, and even court interventions via the Political Parties Disputes Tribunal temporarily halting the decision.
Critics within and outside ODM point fingers directly at Oburu. His push for a pre-election pact with UDA – seen by many as abandoning Raila’s hard-fought opposition legacy – has alienated reformists. Reports highlight Oburu’s alleged flip-flops on key issues, from Sifuna’s fate to the party’s 2027 strategy, fueling claims of indecisiveness and poor leadership. Sifuna’s faction brands Oburu’s supporters as “greedy” and power-hungry, while family rifts deepen: Ruth Odinga questions funding sources in pro-Oburu campaigns, and Winnie Odinga cryptically posts scriptures on greed amid open defiance of her uncle.
Oburu has fired back, dismissing power-grab claims and insisting on collective responsibility. He accuses dissenters of undermining party organs and even fingers external forces like former President Uhuru Kenyatta for meddling to block Ruto’s re-election. Yet observers note that Oburu’s installation as leader shortly after Raila’s death – a move some supporters decried as dynastic favoritism – set the stage for current chaos. Without Raila’s charismatic glue, the party’s ideology appears person-centered and fragile, leaving it vulnerable to “buyouts” and compromise.
Prominent voices like Ekuru Aukot blame UDA interference for exploiting ODM’s post-Raila vacuum, while Martha Karua pins the turmoil on Ruto’s divide-and-rule tactics over 2027 support. Others argue the real culprit is the absence of Raila’s unifying force, with Oburu struggling to fill shoes too big for any successor.
As parallel factions rally under slogans like “Linda Ground” versus “Linda Mwananchi,” and threats of mass exodus loom, ODM teeters on the brink. Is Oburu steering the ship to safer harbors through pragmatic deals, or is his leadership accelerating the very implosion critics feared? With 2027 looming, the answer could determine whether Raila’s orange empire survives – or shatters for good.
We will continue tracking this fast-moving saga as Kenya’s political landscape redraws itself. Stay tuned for updates.
