The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is staring down a political nightmare as blistering coalition talks with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) collide head-on with unbreakable legal chains to the resurgent Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition.
Fresh momentum has surged in the UDA-ODM negotiations, with ODM demanding a strict 50-50 power-sharing split—equal government positions, no vote-splitting in strongholds, and full party autonomy. President Ruto has hailed the potential pact as a “game-changer,” predicting a massive 2-3 million vote landslide in 2027. ODM heavyweights like Gladys Wanga and Oburu Oginga insist the deal must deliver real parity, not token gestures, with the party even eyeing the Nairobi gubernatorial seat regardless of outcomes.
Yet the explosive revival of Azimio under former President Uhuru Kenyatta has slammed the brakes hard. Uhuru recently chaired a dramatic Azimio Council session, appointing Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka as coalition leader and ousting Junet Mohamed as secretary in a sweeping reshuffle aimed at re-energizing the opposition bloc for 2027.
The moves sparked immediate backlash—affiliate parties branded them “illegal, null and void,” vowing legal battles via the Registrar of Political Parties. ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna confirmed the party remains firmly bound to Azimio under its constitution: exiting requires a two-thirds executive resolution and formal notification—steps that haven’t happened.
Legal experts warn ODM risks court showdowns, loss of parliamentary minority privileges, or outright invalidation of any UDA pact if it jumps ship without properly severing Azimio ties. This “Handshake Trap” redux leaves ODM squeezed between loyalists furious at any drift toward the government and UDA leverage evaporating if legal hurdles persist.
As 2027 draws closer, ODM teeters on the edge: a clean Azimio exit, a messy courtroom divorce, or a high-wire balancing act that could fracture the party? One thing is clear—the once-mighty opposition force now faces its toughest test yet, with judges potentially holding the real keys to Kenya’s next political chapter.
