A powerful supercomputer analysis has delivered a brutal verdict on the FA Cup fortunes of Arsenal and Manchester United, revealing the two English giants have consistently been handed the toughest third-round draws of the last 15 years.
The data-driven study — cited by The Athletic — shows the road to Wembley has been significantly steeper for the Gunners and the Red Devils compared to their domestic rivals.
According to the analysis, Arsenal’s third-round opponents since 2011 have had an average league position of 24.9, the toughest of any Premier League club.
During that stretch, Mikel Arteta’s side have repeatedly drawn fellow top-flight teams early — including clashes against Newcastle United, Liverpool, and Manchester United itself.
Despite the statistical handicap, Arsenal still lifted the FA Cup in 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2020, underlining their reputation as cup specialists.
This season, however, fortune has finally smiled. A Gabriel Martinelli hat-trick powered Arsenal past Portsmouth, setting up a tie against Wigan Athletic — famous giant-killers who won the competition in 2013.
Manchester United rank second-worst in the luck table, with their third-round opponents averaging a league position of 26.6.
Led by captain Bruno Fernandes, the Red Devils have often been forced into heavyweight encounters early in the competition.
Their latest setback came in January when they were dumped out by Brighton & Hove Albion, with former United striker Danny Welbeck haunting his old club.
United have still managed to win the FA Cup twice since 2011, highlighting their resilience despite the difficult draws.
In stark contrast, Tottenham Hotspur have enjoyed the smoothest FA Cup ride.
The North London side’s third-round opponents have averaged a much lower-ranked 51.2 league position, statistically the easiest path among current Premier League teams.
But easy draws have not guaranteed success — Spurs were knocked out this season by Aston Villa, proving the FA Cup’s famous unpredictability.
The findings reinforce what many fans have long suspected: the FA Cup draw can dramatically shape a club’s chances of silverware.
For Arsenal and Manchester United, history shows they have often had to win the hard way — battling top-tier opponents far earlier than their rivals.
With the competition heating up again, all eyes will be on whether the traditional heavyweights can defy the numbers once more — or whether the magic of the FA Cup will produce yet another shock.
