Ugunja Constituency, Siaya County — Political temperatures are set to rise today as David Ochieng, the MDG Party leader, makes a high-profile visit to Ugunja Constituency. The stated purpose of his visit is to show solidarity with Moses Omondi, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidate for the upcoming parliamentary by-election. Omondi’s candidacy has been heavily championed by the outgoing MP James Opiyo Wandayi, who has publicly endorsed him as his “heir apparent.”
The by-election, slated to conclude on 27 November, is already shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable political contests in recent memory. What was expected to be a straightforward ODM stronghold retention has instead morphed into a high-stakes, multi-layered political battle — one where local identity, party loyalty, and factional supremacy are all at play.
The Endorsement That Changed the Game
Political analysts argue that Wandayi’s endorsement of Omondi was a textbook example of a political own goal. To many Ugunja residents, the moment Wandayi threw his weight behind Omondi — a man whose roots are in Alego-Usonga and who currently resides in Ugenya — was the moment he alienated the constituency’s grassroots base.
His opponent, Joseph Otieno Alur, has long been regarded as “Ugunja’s own” — a true son of the soil who has patiently nurtured his political ambitions for years. Wandayi’s choice is seen by many as a direct snub to Alur’s long-standing service and deep community ties.
One local pundit put it bluntly:
“By imposing an outsider, Wandayi passed the ball straight to Alur, who is now sprinting to goal without a defender in sight.”
The Central Question
With just 108 days to the polls, a central question hangs over this race:
Will Ugunja voters bypass a leader they have groomed and trusted for decades in favor of a candidate parachuted in from outside the constituency?
This is more than a choice between two names on a ballot. It is a referendum on political patronage versus local representation — a test of whether ODM’s party machinery can override the emotional and historical ties between a community and its “homegrown” candidate.
Polls and Perceptions
According to the latest PolltrakGiants survey, Moses Omondi currently leads in popularity ratings. However, his lead comes with a dangerous asterisk: he is widely perceived as “a project of the system” — a candidate being imposed from above, rather than organically chosen by the electorate.
Meanwhile, Joseph Otieno Alur sits in second place, but with momentum shifting rapidly in his favor. On the ground, he is increasingly referred to as “the people’s candidate”, drawing strong support from voters resentful of external interference in their local politics.
In third place is ZB Owino, a less publicized contender whose strategic positioning could prove decisive. Political watchers note that the simmering Orengo–Wandayi supremacy battle could split the ODM vote between Omondi and Alur, creating an opening for Owino to surge ahead.
The Orengo–Wandayi Rivalry
This by-election has also become the latest battleground in the long-running rivalry between James Aggrey Bob Orengo, the seasoned political tactician and Siaya Governor, and James Opiyo Wandayi, the ambitious outgoing MP.
Orengo, known for his quiet but lethal political maneuvering, is widely credited with building the careers of both David Ochieng and Opiyo Wandayi. Political insiders suggest that if Orengo senses an opportunity to clip Wandayi’s wings by tacitly supporting a rival candidate, he will not hesitate to do so.
Perhaps this is why Ochieng and Wandayi are panicking and brazenly throwing their support openly on one candidate.
The question is who would Orengo support between his friend ZB Owino and the popular grassroots candidate Joseph Alur?
The Final Stretch
With just over three months to go, the Ugunja race is far from decided. Omondi enjoys ODM’s institutional backing and the organizational advantage that comes with it, but he faces a perception problem that could erode his early lead.
Alur’s grassroots appeal is undeniable, and if he consolidates his local base while capitalizing on the growing “outsider” narrative against Omondi, he could close the gap — or even overtake him before election day.
ZB Owino remains the wildcard — underestimated, but potentially well-positioned to exploit the fractures within the dominant political factions.
What’s certain is that the Ugunja by-election is no longer just about filling a vacant parliamentary seat. It has evolved into a three-way proxy war over loyalty, legacy, and control of Siaya County’s political future.
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