Ugunja constituency has suddenly become the battlefield for a high-stakes power game that could make or break the career of one of ODM’s most ambitious sons, former MP and current Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi. What ought to have been a routine by-election has turned into a minefield that threatens not only ODM’s dominance in Siaya but also Wandayi’s long-nurtured gubernatorial dreams.
At the heart of the storm is Moses Omondi — Wandayi’s longtime ally, political manager, and confidant during his tenure as MP. By throwing his weight behind Omondi’s candidature for the ODM ticket, Wandayi risks walking straight into a political trap of his own design.
A Loyalty Test That Could Backfire
Investigations by The Daily Nation reveal growing disquiet among ODM aspirants Joseph Alur, ZB Owino, and at least three other influential party figures who feel the playing field has already been tilted in Omondi’s favour. “If Wandayi forces Omondi through, we will walk out and face him head on,” one aspirant confided, hinting at a looming rebellion.
If this rebellion materialises, ODM could face an embarrassing split. With Ugunja’s voting base fractured, Alur, Owino and their allies could easily consolidate the disenchanted bloc, field a rival candidate, and hand ODM its most humiliating defeat yet. That would not only shatter ODM’s grip on Ugunja but also puncture its aura of invincibility in Siaya.
A Pyrrhic Victory Even if Omondi Wins
But even if Wandayi manages to bulldoze Omondi into the seat and secures a win, the celebration could be short-lived. Political analysts warn that Wandayi will have shot himself in the foot. Having alienated the sizeable support bases of Alur, Owino and others, Wandayi will be left without a unified Ugunja to rally behind his looming gubernatorial bid. “He will not be able to claim the house is in order when half the clan feels betrayed,” a senior ODM insider observed.
That is the crux of Wandayi’s Catch-22: lose now or lose later.
The Governor Factor: Orengo’s Shadow
Wandayi’s predicament is compounded by his bigger political war — his not-so-secret ambition to succeed James Aggrey Bob Orengo as Governor of Siaya in 2027. His appearance in Uyoma during a function where Nicholas Gumbo sought Raila Odinga’s blessings revealed how far behind he might already be in the succession race. Raila, in full public glare, openly declared Orengo as his favourite, signalling where the ODM supremo’s loyalties lie.
For Wandayi, who has carefully tried to position himself as heir to Raila’s Luo Nyanza power mantle, this was a sobering moment. He now faces the reality that Orengo and Raila share not just political convenience but a profound affinity forged over decades of struggle — a bond that is not easily broken by factional manoeuvres.
The Heir Without a Crown?
Wandayi’s gamble in Ugunja is therefore double-edged. On one side, he risks fracturing ODM’s fortress constituency; on the other, he risks undermining his own credibility as a unifier capable of marshalling Siaya behind him. By pushing Omondi, he may win a battle but lose the war. By backing down, he risks being seen as weak and unable to protect his allies.
It is a delicate balancing act that exposes the contradictions of ODM succession politics — a party where loyalty to Raila trumps cold strategy and where history weighs heavier than ambition.
As one veteran political observer in Siaya quipped: “Wandayi wants to climb the throne, but the ladder is leaning on the wrong wall.”
