A new TIFA Research survey has reshaped Kenya’s political scoreboard, placing the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) firmly at the top as the country’s most popular political party—while exposing a volatile electorate increasingly unsure of where its loyalties lie.
According to the report released on Tuesday, December 23, ODM leads with 20% support, ahead of the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16%. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party ranks third with 11%, followed by ex-Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) at 6%, while Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Patriotic Front (WPF) closes the top five with 4%.
Top 5 Most Popular Political Parties (TIFA Report):
ODM – 20%
UDA – 16%
Jubilee Party – 11%
DCP – 6%
Wiper Patriotic Front – 4%
TIFA notes a significant shift since the 2022 General Election. “ODM is the most popular political party, followed by UDA. Support for the two dominant parties has declined from 2022 levels, while the undecided segment has grown to become the largest bloc of voters,” the research firm said—underscoring fluid voter loyalty and the absence of a decisive political base.
The data shows ODM’s support jumped from 13% in September to 20% in November, signaling renewed momentum. UDA held steady at 16%, while Jubilee recorded a sharp rebound from 3% to 11%. In contrast, DCP slipped from 9% to 6%, suggesting waning traction.
Beyond party popularity, the poll reveals uncertainty over ODM’s role in the broad-based government (BBG). Half of Kenyans (50%) expect ODM to exit government and join the opposition, while 30% believe it will stay put. Another 20% remain undecided.
Broad-Based Government Gains Ground
The party rankings come just days after TIFA reported a notable rise in support for the BBG. Public backing has doubled from 22% in May to 44% in November, even as 48% still oppose it and 8% express no opinion. TIFA attributes the shifting mood to fading memories of the violent suppression of protests earlier in the year, which had previously fueled strong opposition.
Methodology
The survey was conducted November 10–17, covering all 47 counties, with a nationally representative sample of 2,053 Kenyan adults aged 18 and above.
As Kenya edges toward the 2027 elections, TIFA’s findings paint a picture of an electorate in flux—ODM ascendant, UDA holding ground, Jubilee resurging, and a growing pool of undecided voters poised to determine the next political chapter. With loyalty thinning and alliances in play, the race is wide open.
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