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ADVERTCabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi’s appearance at Miguena shook the political gathering and exposed the competing political positions within the Orange Democratic Movement and the wider opposition family. The event had been organised to commemorate the first anniversary of the death of former Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga a leader whose political influence shaped the direction of opposition politics in Kenya for many years. Instead of remaining a solemn occasion of remembrance the gathering became a public contest over the future of ODM the meaning of Raila Odinga’s legacy and the political path the opposition should follow ahead of the next General Election. Wandayi’s decision to defend ODM’s cooperation with President William Ruto’s administration and to lead chants supporting a second term for the President disrupted the political script that many opposition leaders had prepared for the day.
The shake-up at Miguena was not caused by one statement or one moment of disagreement. It emerged from the collision of two political positions that have been developing within ODM for some time. Wandayi represents a section of the party that believes ODM should remain firmly within the broad-based government arrangement and continue working with President Ruto beyond the 2027 General Election. He argued that cooperation with the government had delivered development benefits to the region and that ODM could protect the interests of its supporters more effectively by remaining part of the administration. His position placed him in direct confrontation with leaders who believe the party should return to active opposition and seek to remove the President from office. His message was therefore not a casual political remark. It was a deliberate declaration of political allegiance and an attempt to assert influence over the direction of the party in front of its traditional supporters.
Wandayi’s intervention was significant because it took place in Siaya County the political home of ODM and a region where the party’s identity has been built through decades of political mobilisation. Any leader who wishes to claim authority within ODM must demonstrate acceptance among the people who have historically sustained the movement. By leading chants in support of President Ruto’s second term Wandayi sought to show that the party’s grassroots still respond to him and to the leadership direction he represents. The reported walkout by sections of Orange supporters during speeches by opposition figures further demonstrated that the audience was not merely observing the event. It was participating in a political contest choosing between competing voices and responding to the leaders it considered closest to its interests.
The shake-up also affected Governor James Orengo who had been widely expected to use the gathering to strengthen his claim to leadership within the opposition. As the host governor and a long-serving figure in the movement Orengo carried the responsibility of providing political direction at a time when ODM’s future is being openly questioned. His call for the opposition to unite behind one presidential candidate in 2027 reflected his desire to preserve ODM’s traditional role as a vehicle for challenging the government. He argued that the country’s challenges required a change of leadership and that the opposition needed to present a common front. However Wandayi’s forceful presence denied the gathering the appearance of unity that Orengo and other opposition leaders may have hoped to project.
Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East Member of Parliament Babu Owino also found their political message tested at Miguena. Both leaders received strong responses when they invoked the memory of Raila Odinga and called for resistance to President Ruto’s re-election. Their speeches appealed to public emotion and reminded supporters of the struggles associated with the former Prime Minister. Yet the events of the day showed that emotional appeals however powerful cannot by themselves establish political control. A political movement requires organisation discipline resources credible candidates and the ability to mobilise supporters consistently between elections. The response to Wandayi’s chants suggested that opposition leaders cannot assume that public sympathy will automatically translate into command over the party’s grassroots structures.
ADVERTThe “Sisi Ndio Sifuna” narrative has given Senator Sifuna visibility and a political identity that extends beyond his previous role as ODM Secretary General. The slogan has spread rapidly through digital platforms and has helped him present himself as a defender of citizens who feel excluded from political decision-making. However Miguena exposed the limits of digital visibility. A message may travel quickly online and generate considerable engagement but political influence requires a more sustained connection with ordinary citizens. Grassroots mobilisation depends on consistent engagement with party members local organisers community groups and voters whose political choices are shaped by their experiences and expectations. The question facing Sifuna and his allies is whether their online popularity can translate into an organised political network capable of sustaining their message across constituencies and wards.
Wandayi’s appearance also demonstrated the importance of political organisation in determining the future of ODM. Established party networks and long-standing relationships remain important in shaping how political messages are received at the grassroots. Leaders who wish to influence the direction of the party must go beyond public declarations and demonstrate that they can maintain consistent engagement with members. They must understand local concerns build relationships and provide a clear account of what their preferred political direction means for the people they seek to represent. Wandayi’s intervention brought this question to the centre of the gathering by demonstrating that support for the government arrangement remains a subject of active political mobilisation even in areas traditionally associated with ODM’s opposition identity.
The events at Miguena also placed the question of ODM’s future at the centre of public debate. The party carries a long political history shaped by its supporters’ participation in campaigns for democratic reform constitutional change accountable leadership and social justice. Its identity cannot be separated from the political journey of Raila Odinga and the millions of Kenyans who supported his campaigns over the years. However the political circumstances facing the party have changed. Its participation in the broad-based government has created new opportunities for influence while raising questions about its traditional role as an opposition movement. The challenge for its leadership is to explain this change clearly and demonstrate how the party will continue to protect the interests of its members and supporters.
The contest over ODM’s future must therefore be understood as more than a disagreement between individual politicians. It concerns the party’s identity its relationship with the government and the expectations of its supporters ahead of the 2027 General Election. Those advocating continued cooperation with President Ruto argue that participation in government allows ODM to influence national decisions and secure development opportunities. Those calling for a return to opposition believe that the party risks weakening its political credibility if it does not independently challenge the government on matters affecting ordinary Kenyans. Both positions raise questions that deserve serious consideration by party members. Ultimately the credibility of either approach will depend on its ability to deliver tangible benefits and maintain public trust.
The legacy of Raila Odinga remains central to this debate. Nearly every leader at Miguena sought to associate himself with his political legacy. Babu Owino described Raila as an anchor during political storms while Sifuna spoke of the lessons he had learned from him. Orengo framed the opposition’s task as a continuation of the path Raila had championed. Wandayi on the other hand argued that the best way to protect Raila’s supporters was to assure them of security and political relevance within the current government arrangement. This competition for legitimacy is understandable but it also carries a risk. Raila’s legacy cannot be reduced to slogans funeral speeches or claims of political inheritance. It must be measured by the ability of current leaders to defend democratic values serve citizens and offer credible alternatives to the challenges facing the country.
The events in Bondo and the subsequent roadside engagements as leaders departed towards Kisumu Airport showed that the political activity did not end at Miguena. Every movement greeting statement and public reaction was interpreted as part of a wider struggle for influence. This is understandable in a region where political loyalty is deeply personal and where the memory of Raila Odinga continues to shape political identity. Yet leaders must recognise that supporters are watching more than public performances. They are observing whether their leaders can offer unity discipline and a practical programme for the future. A crowd may cheer a leader for a moment but lasting political authority is earned through consistency service and credible organisation.
The contest now facing ODM is ultimately a contest between visibility and organisation. Sifuna Babu Owino and their allies have gained visibility through public speeches digital engagement and a clear opposition message. Wandayi and his allies possess the advantage of government access and established political networks within ODM. Governor Orengo brings experience institutional memory and standing within the movement. None of these advantages is decisive on its own. Visibility without organisation can struggle to produce lasting political influence while organisation without a compelling message can lose the confidence of supporters. The leaders who can combine a clear political message with effective grassroots mobilisation will be better positioned to influence the direction of the movement.
The opposition must also confront an uncomfortable truth. Public anger against a government does not automatically translate into electoral victory. Supporters may demand political change but they will ultimately judge leaders by their ability to present workable solutions to unemployment the cost of living insecurity poor public services and weak public institutions. Calls for change must be accompanied by credible plans credible candidates and a united political front. If opposition leaders continue to compete for control of Raila’s political inheritance instead of building a common agenda they risk weakening the movement they claim to protect. The people who attended Miguena were not simply watching leaders exchange political arguments. They were witnessing a contest over the direction of a party that has played a central role in Kenya’s political development.
Wandayi’s appearance at Miguena has therefore put the opposition’s ground game to a serious test. It has shown that ODM’s internal contest is real that the party’s grassroots cannot be taken for granted and that the struggle for political direction will be decided by more than speeches. The leaders who wish to shape the future of the Orange movement must earn the trust of its members through sustained organisation honest engagement and a clear commitment to the welfare of ordinary citizens. Miguena has raised the stakes exposed the competing political positions and reminded every political actor that grassroots support remains essential to determining the future of ODM and the wider opposition ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Photo courtesy Opiyo Wandayi Communication unit.
