ADVERT 
ADVERTFor all the political noise surrounding the 2027 Alego-Usonga parliamentary race, one uncomfortable fact currently stands out: Samuel Onunga Atandi has no clearly established heavyweight challenger.
That could change. But as things stand, the much-discussed attempt to mobilise an “Okoa Alego-Usonga” movement against the sitting MP appears to have stalled before producing the one thing such a political project ultimately needs — a formidable candidate prepared to take Atandi head-on.
Atandi is not merely another incumbent going into a re-election campaign. In 2022, he made political history by breaking a long-standing one-term jinx that had haunted the Alego-Usonga parliamentary seat for decades.
Since the promulgation of the 2010 constitution successive MPs had struggled to secure two consecutive terms. By the time Atandi sought re-election in 2022, the historical pattern had become sufficiently entrenched for it to be described as the Alego-Usonga one-term jinx.
Atandi broke it.
ADVERTHe won the 2022 election with 69,129 votes, defeating George Omondi Muluan, who polled 14,624 votes. The victory gave Atandi a second consecutive term and made him the first Alego-Usonga MP to successfully defend the seat under the new constitution. Contemporary reports described the achievement as the breaking of the constituency’s one-term jinx.
That history cannot be wished away by political mobilisation.
Nor can an incumbent who has already survived the first re-election test be removed simply by assembling politicians and activists under a movement with an attractive name.
The real weakness of the Okoa Alego-Usonga idea, at least for now, is therefore not the absence of political rhetoric. It is the absence of a candidate of sufficient stature to translate that rhetoric into an electoral threat.
A movement does not appear on the ballot.
A candidate does.
Dan Omoro may be interested in the race, while Nicholas Kut K’Ochogo’s name has also featured in the political conversation. Indeed, Kut K’Ochogo was involved in a 2022 ODM nomination dispute with Atandi before the matter was eventually resolved through a consensus process. But neither name, at this stage, has demonstrated the political weight necessary to make Atandi’s re-election an obviously difficult proposition.
That is the uncomfortable reality confronting those seeking to deny Atandi a third term.
To seriously unsettle him, Alego-Usonga would arguably require a politician with an established countywide profile, political networks, resources and a demonstrated ability to mobilise voters beyond a particular ward, social group or political faction.
Two names immediately fit that description more naturally than most: Siaya Deputy Governor CPA Dr William Oduol Denge and former governor Cornell Rasanga Amoth.
Both possess political profiles substantially larger than those of ordinary parliamentary aspirants.
Oduol is a serving deputy governor and a prominent figure in Siaya’s political establishment. He has previously been associated with a gubernatorial contest that was successful and has recently positioned himself for the 2027 Siaya governor’s race. Rasanga, meanwhile, is a former governor with years of countywide political experience and an established network across Siaya.
Either man’s entry into Alego-Usonga would therefore fundamentally alter the political conversation.
But there is an important qualification: neither Oduol nor Rasanga is currently an established candidate for the Alego-Usonga parliamentary seat. Their political ambitions appear directed elsewhere, meaning the constituency cannot reasonably count on either heavyweight to mount the challenge that Atandi’s opponents appear to desire.
And that is why, so far, Atandi’s political position looks unusually comfortable.
This should not be interpreted as a prediction about the 2027 election. Elections are determined by voters, and political circumstances can change dramatically before nominations and polling day. Nor should it be interpreted as evidence that Alego-Usonga voters are uniformly satisfied with the incumbent.
It simply describes the present political field.
There is an incumbent with two successful elections behind him, but no heavyweight challenger has yet emerged to make the contest unmistakably competitive.
That is where businessman Martine Otieno Mijesh enters the equation.
Reports of Mijesh’s possible entry have injected an entirely new element into the Alego-Usonga succession debate.
Unlike a political movement without a clear standard-bearer, an individual candidate can be tested directly by the electorate. Mijesh’s reported interest matters because he could potentially bring together three ingredients that any serious challenge to an established incumbent requires: resources, visibility and a constituency of supporters willing to work for his candidacy.
His perceived appeal among sections of the youth is particularly significant.
In modern Kenyan politics, a candidate’s ability to mobilise young people can extend far beyond crowds at political events. Young supporters can become the communication network through which a campaign’s manifesto, political message and local agenda reach thousands of voters.
But Mijesh’s greatest potential advantage may be his ability to finance a sustained campaign.
This is not to suggest that money buys elections. It does not. But parliamentary contests require resources — transport, communication, mobilisation, campaign personnel, polling-station agents and the ability to maintain political visibility over an extended period.
A candidate with substantial personal resources can therefore enter a race with a degree of independence that many aspirants lack.
That possibility explains why Mijesh’s name is attracting attention.
If he formally enters the contest and builds the political organisation necessary to support his candidacy, he could provide the missing ingredient in the anti-Atandi equation: a recognisable alternative around which disparate political interests could coalesce.
The significance would extend beyond Mijesh himself.
An actual Mijesh candidacy could force other aspirants to reconsider their calculations. Politicians who have been reluctant to enter the race because they saw no credible path against an established incumbent could suddenly have another political vehicle around which to organise.
It could also give the so-called Okoa Alego-Usonga project a second life — not as a movement searching endlessly for a candidate, but as a political constituency rallying around one.
That, however, remains a possibility rather than an established fact.
Mijesh would still have to prove that his reported youth appeal translates into votes across all six wards of Alego-Usonga. He would have to demonstrate that his political reach extends beyond business and personal networks. He would have to articulate a persuasive programme and convince voters that he represents more than a well-financed alternative.
Most importantly, he would have to withstand the considerable political machinery that comes with challenging a two-term incumbent.
Atandi, for his part, cannot afford to dismiss such a challenge if it materialises.
His history gives him an important political credential: he has already done what his predecessors could not. He broke the constituency’s one-term curse and demonstrated in 2022 that incumbency in Alego-Usonga can be converted into a second electoral mandate.
But history also means that voters now have two terms of Atandi’s record to examine.
That is where the 2027 contest, if it becomes competitive, should ultimately be fought — on performance, representation, development, accountability, political accessibility and the competing visions offered by the candidates.
For now, however, the political landscape remains remarkably clear.
The Okoa Alego-Usonga movement, as presently constituted, looks more like a political idea in search of a candidate than a functioning electoral machine.
Atandi has already broken the one-term jinx and currently faces no heavyweight challenger.
Oduol and Rasanga are among the few Siaya political figures whose stature could immediately transform the race, but their political sights appear elsewhere.
And Mijesh is the emerging wild card whose entry could change the equation altogether.
If Mijesh eventually declares, Alego-Usonga could move from a contest dominated by an incumbent and a collection of aspirants into a genuinely consequential political battle.
That is why his possible candidacy matters.
He does not have to be declared the inevitable successor to Atandi. He only has to become a sufficiently credible challenger to make the incumbent fight for every vote.
For the first time in the emerging 2027 conversation, that possibility is beginning to look like the real story in Alego-Usonga.
