The Ugunja Constituency by-election has taken a dramatic turn with the release of fresh opinion polls placing Joseph Alur Otieno at 21.7%, narrowly ahead of Moses Omondi on 20.08%, with Fred ZB Owino close behind at 17.4%. While the figures appear to give Alur a tenuous lead, the deeper story is how Omondi — once considered the natural heir to CS Opiyo Wandayi — has squandered his golden chance, leaving the race wide open and deeply fractured along ward lines.
Omondi’s squandered advantage
For years, Moses Omondi served as Wandayi’s right-hand man, managing constituency affairs and controlling grassroots mobilization. Yet his reputation in Ligega Ward has been dented by allegations that his brand of youth mobilisation leaned heavily on meetings around chang’aa dens. Families there accuse him of presiding over a wasted generation — young men reduced to idleness and dependency instead of becoming empowered agents of development. That narrative has stuck, eroding the goodwill he should have carried into the race.
Now, according to the latest poll, Omondi is battling to keep second place — his numbers reflecting a hemorrhage of support in Ligega, where the ground has dramatically shifted. People are no longer just talking about the “imported project” tag but they are seriously discussing if his imposition means well for the Constituency.
A ward-by-ward turf war
The Ugunja seat is essentially a four-Ward battleground — Ligega, Ugunja, Sidindi, and Sigomere. Victory will hinge on who secures their turf and who slices into opponents’ backyards.
Ligega Ward: Once Omondi’s stronghold, it appears to be tilting toward Chris Budo, who despite registering only 2.8% in the poll, is seen as having a “hard” headstart because he is not in the ODM Party quagmire and his support base is concentrated in Ligega. That gives him a guaranteed bloc before undecided votes are contested.
Sigomere Ward: Frederick ZB Owino, who polled 17.4%, has solid ground here. However, the introduction of a female candidate into the race is widely read as a tactical ploy to undercut his dominance in Sigomere, potentially blunting his advantage.
Ugunja & Sidindi Wards: These remain split zones where Alur, Omondi, and half a dozen minor aspirants will be scrambling for dominance.
The polling shows a fragmented race with a 30% “Others” basket and 1% undecided — classic signs of volatility where Ward-based micro-campaigning will determine the final outcome.
Party dynamics: ODM at a crossroads
The ODM Party faces a delicate balancing act. With Alur and Omondi virtually tied, party stalwarts may opt to sidestep factional wars by rallying behind Fred ZB Owino as a compromise candidate. Such a move could preserve both the Alur and Omondi blocs within ODM and allow the party to present a united front. In that likely scenario, ZB Owino would carry the ODM ticket into the homestretch against:
Chris Budo (KANU), who already enjoys a guaranteed Ligega headstart.
MJ Okumu (6.2%), who is reportedly considering breaking away from ODM’s internal wrangles to campaign as an Independent candidate.
The margins will be razor-thin
If the three-man race crystallises around ZB Owino (ODM), Chris Budo (KANU), and MJ Okumu (Independent), the final result will almost certainly come down to a razor-thin margin — a few percentage points separating the winner from the losers. The polls suggest no candidate currently commands even a quarter of the electorate, with the “Others + undecided” category (over 30%) holding the real power.
However, if either Joseph Alur or Moses Omondi bolt from ODM and reappear under a different banner, the arithmetic will dramatically shift. A splinter candidacy would fracture ODM’s bloc further, handing Chris Budo or even MJ Okumu a golden chance to ride the chaos into a surprise win.
The numbers tell a story of missed opportunities and fragile leads. Joseph Alur may sit at the top of the poll, but his lead is shaky, eroded by Omondi’s squandered chance and an electorate split four ways by Ward loyalties. The introduction of tactical spoiler candidates, coupled with ODM’s looming nomination gamble, means the Ugunja by-election is not simply a popularity contest but a high-stakes turf war where a fragmented vote could deliver victory by the slimmest of margins.
Ugunja By-Election: Ward-by-Ward Projection Matrix
1. Ligega Ward
Chris Budo (KANU): ~3% “hard” support universally translates into a strong bloc here. His base is concentrated in Ligega, and he is not in ODM Party meaning he starts with an advantage by locality and groundswell.
Moses Omondi (ODM hopeful): Once dominant here, now weakened by chang’aa and allegations of imposition by CS James Opiyo Wandayi. Risk of collapse unless he rehabilitates his image.
Joseph Alur / ZB Owino / MJ Okumu: Minimal presence; mostly reliant on party machinery.
Projection:
Budo: 35–40% of Ligega votes (headstart advantage).
Omondi: 15–20% if ODM retains him; less if not the flagbearer.
Alur / Owino: 10–15% each.
Others + undecided: 20–25%
Key Factor: Ligega is now the swing base for Budo. If ODM mishandles nominations, Budo locks this Ward.
2. Ugunja Ward
Joseph Alur: His natural home turf; explains his poll lead at 21.7%. Expected to defend his base strongly.
Moses Omondi: Retains residual ODM support from his years managing the constituency.
ZB Owino: Secondary presence; benefits only if ODM endorses him as compromise.
Projection:
Alur: 30–35%.
Omondi: 20–25%.
Owino: 10–15% (jumps to 25%+ if ODM nominee).
Budo + others: 10–15%.
Undecided: 15–20%.
Key Factor: If ODM unites behind ZB Owino, Alur risks losing dominance here despite home advantage.
3. Sidindi Ward
Joseph Alur: Reasonable base but not overwhelming.
Fred ZB Owino: Has workable structures and could surge if ODM leans his way.
MJ Okumu: Seen as “individualistic” candidate; has pockets of loyalists.
Projection:
Alur: 20–25%.
Owino: 20–25%.
Omondi: 15–20%.
MJ Okumu: 10–15%.
Budo + others: 5–10%.
Undecided: 15–20%.
Key Factor: A classic swing Ward. Whoever ODM fields could dominate here.
4. Sigomere Ward
Fred ZB Owino: Strong base — explains his 17.4% constituency-wide. However, entry of a female candidate is a deliberate spoiler.
Female candidate (new entrant): Expected to siphon 5–10% from Owino’s Sigomere share.
Omondi / Alur: Secondary players; rely on ODM structures, not organic support.
Projection:
Owino: 30–35% (could fall to 25–28% due to female candidate).
Female spoiler: 5–10%.
Alur: 15–20%.
Omondi: 10–15%.
Budo + others: 5–10%.
Undecided: 15–20%.
Key Factor: Sigomere is Owino’s must-hold base. Any erosion here weakens his ODM bargaining power.
Strategic Implications
Joseph Alur: Shaky lead constituency-wide; depends on Ugunja Ward and split votes elsewhere. Vulnerable if ODM sidelines him.
Moses Omondi: Biggest loser in Ligega; only path to survival is ODM ticket + rebranding. Without it, he fades into irrelevance.
Fred ZB Owino: The compromise candidate. If ODM rallies behind him, he becomes frontrunner with Sigomere as home base and gains in Sidindi + Ugunja.
Chris Budo: Starts with a hard 3% constituency-wide (Ligega base) but could balloon to 10–15% if ODM implodes. Positioning as outsider gives him strategic leverage.
MJ Okumu: At 6.2%, risks irrelevance unless he breaks free as an Independent, capturing protest votes.
Most Likely Scenarios
1. ODM nominates ZB Owino:
ODM vote consolidates (Alur + Omondi blocs).
Race becomes Owino (ODM) vs Budo (KANU) vs Okumu (Independent).
Outcome: razor-thin win that could go any which way with ~3–5% margin.
2. ODM sticks with Alur or Omondi:
Risk of factional splits heavily tilted towards Omondi as the flagbearer. Alur could easily marshal old support bases having run and lost twice and then the race could go any which way.
Budo secures Ligega, Owino’s Sigomere weakens, ODM loses for lack of cohesion or puts up a spirited fight with Alur.
Outcome: chaos, undecideds swing heavily, possible upset.
3. Alur or Omondi run as rebels:
ODM base fractures irreparably.
Budo and Independents surge.
Outcome: ODM loses safe seat on a protest vote.
Confirmed Contestants List
1. Chris Budo
2. MJ Okumu
3. Joseph Aluru
4. Fredrick Owino
5. Fredrick Oyugi Dor
6. Moses Omondi
7. Sam Okoyo.
8. Lillian Aketch
Editor’s Note: we will continue to provide independent daily updates on the Ugunja Constituency 2025 Parliamentary by-election. If you have details you want covered reach out to us through email: siayatoday@gmail.com
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