Raila Odinga has moved to silence speculation that ODM is retreating from the 2027 presidential race. But behind the bold pronouncement lies a party battling internal wrangles, uneasy alliances, and the burden of balancing survival with ambition.
Kenya’s largest opposition party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), is facing its biggest identity test in years. Amidst simmering internal wrangles and uncertainty over its political future, the party held its Annual Delegates Convention (ADC) today, seeking to reassure its supporters that ODM remains intact and ready for 2027.
At the center of the storm was ODM party leader Raila Odinga, who delivered a stinging rebuttal to claims that the party might not field a presidential candidate in the next general election.
“We are ODM. Who has told you that ODM will not have a candidate in 2027? Who has told you?” Raila posed, his voice carrying both defiance and caution.
Speaking at the ODM parliamentary group meeting in Machakos County, the former Prime Minister emphasized that the party has made no resolutions about its 2027 strategy and urged members to desist from spreading unofficial positions.
Party Unity or Internal Fracture?
ODM has, for months, been dogged by factional disputes over Raila’s cooperation with the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition. While Raila insists the 2023–2027 memorandum of understanding with President William Ruto’s administration was necessary to “steady the ship” after the violent protests of 2024, some members view the deal as a betrayal of ODM’s traditional role as government watchdog.
Raila defended the controversial pact, arguing it prevented the collapse of democratic institutions and enabled ODM to influence key national policies, including the 2025–2026 budget.
“About a year ago, we got together with the UDA Party to help steady the ship of the Kenyan nation that had been hit by extreme turbulence and faced a reality of collapse,” Raila explained.
Yet whispers persist that sections of ODM lawmakers—particularly younger MPs—are positioning themselves for life beyond Raila’s leadership, sparking speculation that the party could go into 2027 fragmented.
The Privatization Debate
Raila also weighed in on the government’s privatization drive, defending proposals to sell stakes in strategic parastatals like the Kenya Pipeline Corporation and potentially Safaricom.
“Even if you sell it, where is somebody taking it to? It remains very much an asset of Kenya,” Raila argued, drawing parallels with Margaret Thatcher’s privatization era in the UK and Narendra Modi’s public-private partnerships in India.
He lamented that political infighting had stalled foreign investment, citing the controversial Adani airport deal that collapsed amid opposition pressure. According to him, regional rivals like Rwanda have since reaped the benefits.
“Now a similar arrangement is happening in Kigali. The Qataris are building Kigali International Airport in the same terms that Adani wanted to do here. So Kigali is going to be the hub in this region, not Nairobi,” Raila said.
ODM’s Identity Crisis
For ODM, the bigger question remains: Can the party retain its independence while being part of a broad-based government?
Raila insists yes. He urged members to remain loyal to ODM’s identity even as they cooperate with Kenya Kwanza until 2027.
“So first, think as ODM. We have a clear plan that we have negotiated and we have agreed on. And let us continue to implement that plan,” he directed.
However, critics argue ODM risks becoming a junior partner in government without a distinct voice, leaving its grassroots base disillusioned.
While Raila’s statement clarified ODM’s intent to remain in the presidential race, the party is yet to name or even hint at a flagbearer. With Raila’s own political future uncertain, potential successors such as Wycliffe Oparanya, Hassan Joho, and Edwin Sifuna are quietly maneuvering but face both internal resistance and external skepticism.
The 2027 general election looms large, and ODM must now reconcile its cooperation with government with its obligation to provide a credible alternative. Raila’s fiery rhetorical question—“Who told you ODM will not have a candidate in 2027?”—may have rallied the troops for now, but it also underscores the uncertainty of a party caught between loyalty and ambition, survival and legacy.
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