The name of former Siaya Governor Cornell Rasanga Amoth is once again reverberating across the political landscape of Siaya County — even though the man himself has declared no intention to vie for any gubernatorial seat come 2027.
In a county where political power has traditionally been shared through elite consensus rather than strictly at the ballot, Rasanga’s re-emergence in conversations around succession politics is more than mere nostalgia — it’s a reflection of deep-seated anxieties within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party stronghold and particularly Orengo’s camp as Siaya inches toward the next General Elections cycle.
The Unwritten Power-sharing Code of Siaya
The Siaya gubernatorial race has never been about who commands the most votes. Rather, it is anchored on what locals refer to as an “unwritten law of rotational balance” — a quiet understanding that the top county seats must be fairly distributed among the six constituencies: Alego-Usonga, Bondo, Rarieda, Gem, Ugunja, and Ugenya.
The governor, deputy governor, senator, and woman representative positions have, over the past decade, been the subject of delicate negotiations and factional horse-trading behind closed doors. Actual elections, insiders whisper, merely formalize outcomes already sealed by regional elites and the Odinga political establishment.
2013: The Coronation of a Technocrat
When Siaya held its first gubernatorial contest in 2013, it was William Oduol Denge who won the ODM nominations, trouncing Dr. Oburu Oginga, the elder brother to ODM leader Raila Odinga. But in a move that stunned grassroots supporters, the party machinery annulled the results and handed the ticket to Cornell Rasanga Amoth, a little-known government statistician and procurement officer at the time.
Rasanga’s father, Paramount Chief Amoth Owira, had been a confidante of the late President Daniel arap Moi — a connection that gave the younger Rasanga both administrative discipline and political finesse, if not a name. However, few dispute that it was the Odinga family that thrust Rasanga into elective politics, shielding him from a humiliating defeat and grooming him into the governorship.
2017: Gumbo’s Rise and Fall
In 2017, the cycle repeated itself. Engineer Nicholas Odero Gumbo, then Rarieda MP, mounted a serious challenge against Rasanga’s leadership, riding on an anti-corruption and technocratic reform agenda. He galvanized support across the county and appeared poised to dethrone the incumbent.
But once again, the Odinga dynasty closed ranks, framing Gumbo as a rebel whose independent streak posed a threat to ODM’s unity. The party’s influence prevailed, and Rasanga secured a second term — cementing his image as a loyal custodian of Odingaism in Siaya.
2022: Orengo’s Turn — and the 6-Piece Curse
By 2022, the governorship seat rotated (with a measure of grumbling) toward Ugenya Constituency. Senior Counsel James Orengo, a close Raila ally and veteran of the Second Liberation struggle, was given the ODM ticket. His main rival? None other than Engineer Gumbo, running on an UDM Party platform.
The contest, however, was far from free. In the last-minute Raila who was a presidential candidate enforced the now-infamous “6-piece voting pattern”, compelling loyalists to vote strictly for ODM candidates across all levels. The directive swept Orengo into power but left Siaya deeply divided, with Gumbo’s supporters alleging betrayal, voter manipulation, and disenfranchisement.
2027: The Odingaism Question
With Raila Odinga’s political influence snuffed out, Siaya’s internal politics is beginning to unshackle itself from Odingaism. For the first time in decades, the next governor of Siaya may not need a bloodline, cronyism or historical association with the Odinga family to ascend to power.
This political shift has left Orengo’s camp jittery. Sources within ODM’s Siaya branch reveal mounting pressure on the governor to reconnect with Alego-Usonga, a constituency that feels alienated by the current administration.
Orengo is reportedly considering either County Secretary Joseph Ogutu or Siaya Township MCA James Obiero Otare as his running mate in 2027 — both hailing from Alego-Usonga. Yet critics say neither possesses the grassroots influence or charisma that William Oduol commanded.
Infact a recent poll indicated that if William Oduol were to mount a serious political comeback with himself as the candidate, there’s indication that he could make a very impressive shot at the seat. Oduol allowed himself to be shunted away from the political limelight, squandering the opportunity to get back at his boss on certain failures in the implementation of the manifesto they crafted together.
Fragmented Alliances
Meanwhile, the Rarieda and Bondo axis remains divided between MP Otiende Amollo and perennial reformist Nicholas Odero Gumbo as well as an emergent faction controlled by businessman Andiwo Mwai. Gem Constituency, historically a political bellwether, often follows Alego-Usonga’s lead — a fact that complicates Orengo’s arithmetic.
Add to that David Ochieng’s MDG Party insurgence in Ugenya, and a growing influence that openly threatens ODM’s dominance, and the picture becomes even murkier. Ugunja, under the stewardship of ODM loyalist Opiyo Wandayi, can be coerced to toe the party line — but even Wandayi is said to have a lukewarm relationship with Orengo.
Rasanga’s Strategic Return
Against this backdrop, whispers of James Orengo courting former Governor Rasanga have gained traction. Though Rasanga has declared his intent to vie for Senator, his grassroots network, cross-constituency respect, and insider credentials make him a powerful kingmaker — or a potential fallback candidate should ODM seek to “reset” Siaya’s politics once again.
“Rasanga may not be running for governor, but his endorsement could make or break anyone’s campaign,” confided a senior ODM official familiar with Siaya’s internal negotiations. “He still commands loyalty, especially in Alego and Gem. Orengo needs him now more than ever.”
Siaya’s 2027 gubernatorial race is shaping up not as a contest of policies but as a battle for political survival and identity. As Odingaism wanes and new alliances emerge, the county stands at a crossroads: between continuity and reinvention.
Whether Orengo manages to reassert control, or whether the Ochieng-Gumbo-Oduol axis finally cracks the ODM monopoly, one thing is certain — Siaya’s consensus politics is on the verge of disruption.
And as has always been the case in Siaya, the next governor may already have been chosen — long before a single ballot is cast.
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