As dawn broke over Ugunja Constituency on 27 November 2025 residents queued at 116 polling stations, casting their ballots in a by-election that would cement the region’s political future until 2027. But by mid-day, it was clear: this was not going to be a high-energy, high-turnout contest. What emerged instead was a textbook case of turnout collapse + entrenched party dominance = a routine.
Out of 60,114 registered voters, only 15,017 people — about 24.9% — cast ballots.
The turnout was described by officials as “low from the start,” with minimal queues at most polling stations even early in the day.
Voting seemed to follow a pattern seen in other by-elections across the country recently: early trickle, little afternoon increase.
Analysts will likely mark this as a major sign of voter apathy, fatigue, or even complacency — a troubling trend as the region gears up for the next general election.
The winner? Moses Okoth Omondi of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), who masterfully turned the low turnout into an unassailable advantage:
Candidate Party Votes
Moses Okoth Omondi ODM 9,447
Eng. Odhiambo Orodi Wiper Patriotic Front 1,819
Fredrick Ochiel United Democratic Movement (UDM) 1,200
Benson Otieno Obol United Green Movement 1,171
Maurice Juma Okumu Liberal Party of Kenya 381
Vincent Olengo Kenya Moja 333
Chrispine Omondi Oduor (Budo) KANU 188
Lilian Akinyi National Alliance Party (NAP) 182
Erick Ofiro Jubilee Party 91
Oliver Ochieng’ National Liberal Party 56
In his acceptance speech, Omondi thanked voters for their “overwhelming support” and promised to carry forward the development agenda initiated by his predecessor, James Opiyo Wandayi, now Energy Cabinet Secretary.
The result underscores a simple reality: ODM’s ground machinery remains intact, even amid low turnout and multiple challengers, delivering a sweeping — if superficial — mandate.
Low turnout isn’t just about laziness — it may reflect a deeper disenchantment with politics. Residents told journalists they’d prefer finishing morning chores or going to work instead of queuing at polling stations.
For many, the by-election might have felt irrelevant — a stop-gap until the 2027 general elections, with little real difference for everyday survival. That’s a dangerous message for democracy.
In the backdrop was also internal disenchantment with the ODM Party machinery after two popular aspirants: Joseph Alur and ZB Owino were dropped off at the primaries.
Despite a field of 11 candidates — each ostensibly from different parties — the competition was largely symbolic. No credible challenge emerged: the second-best candidate got fewer than 2,000 votes.
That consolidation may reflect voter convenience, perceived inevitability of ODM’s win, or fear of wasting one’s vote on smaller parties.
Ahead of the election, even politicians from opposing parties (or nominal independents) lent support to Omondi — including backing from alleged rivals.
The picture that emerges is one of political alliances over ideologies, and strategic unity aimed at preserving the status quo in Siaya.
If 2025 is any guide, the 2027 general election could see more of the same: low turnout, predictable outcomes, and consolidation of power by dominant parties.
Unless there’s a deliberate push for civic engagement or credible candidates emerge, by-elections risk becoming ritualistic confirmations rather than real contests.
Some in the Ugunja business community warned the ODM candidate not to “rest on the laurels” of his predecessor — urging him to door-knock for votes, not rely on political endorsements.
Yet few appear to have heeded that call: on polling day, small crowds, sparse turnout, and a general sense that “nothing much will change.”
Post-election, Omondi appealed for unity — inviting even his unsuccessful rivals to join in pursuit of development for Ugunja.
The 2025 Ugunja by-election is a microcosm of larger trends across Kenya: dominant-party assurance, voter apathy, and a shrinking competitive space for opposition or smaller parties. If left unchecked, this could lead to a political system where choices are illusionary, and elections are rituals rather than genuine contests.
For democracy to stay alive, voters — especially the youth — need motivation and credible alternatives. Otherwise, the same faces will keep rotating in power, and the real losers will be ordinary citizens who never felt represented to begin with.
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