The budding alliance between the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) Party is facing its sternest test yet. As the two parties hammer out a pre-election pact for 2027 — building on the broad-based government framework initiated by Raila Odinga — one issue stands out as the potential make-or-break: electoral zoning. ODM is demanding it. UDA is flatly refusing. Yet a clear zoning formula may prove far more than a tactical compromise; it could be the very safeguard that keeps ODM politically relevant long after the 2027 votes are tallied.
Zoning, in Kenyan political shorthand, is an agreement between coalition partners not to field rival candidates in each other’s designated strongholds. The objective is straightforward: avoid splitting votes and handing victory to outsiders. The strategy has a proven track record. In 2013, the Jubilee Alliance quietly zoned Central Kenya for Uhuru Kenyatta’s TNA and the Rift Valley for William Ruto’s URP, delivering a first-round presidential victory. Similar informal deals shaped NASA and Azimio coalitions. Without such guardrails, even the strongest partnerships often haemorrhage support in overlapping ethnic and regional bases.
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