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ADVERTSix Siaya power brokers sit down for a private Nairobi lunch as key political heavyweights stay away — and suddenly, the county’s 2027 succession battle looks very different
It was billed, at least officially, as a harmless political caucus.
But a private luncheon involving six of Siaya’s most visible political figures at a Nairobi hotel has opened a new chapter in the county’s increasingly intriguing 2027 political drama.
Around the table were Alego Usonga MP Samuel Onunga Atandi, Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo, Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo, Siaya Woman Representative Christine Ombaka, Deputy Governor William Oduol and County Assembly Speaker George Okode.
The photograph of the gathering may eventually prove more politically significant than the lunch itself.
ADVERTFor the first time in a while, politicians who have publicly disagreed over the running of Siaya County — including accusations and counter-accusations touching on governance, corruption and the county’s tendering processes — were captured sitting together, apparently comfortable in one another’s company.
That alone would have been interesting.
But then came the question that has sent political tongues wagging across Siaya:
What was not on the menu — and who was not at the table?
Three of the county’s biggest political names were conspicuously missing: Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary James Opiyo Wandayi, former Rarieda MP Nicholas Odero Gumbo and Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga.
Their absence has inevitably triggered speculation that the Nairobi gathering could represent the beginning of a new political conversation — one whose contours are yet to become public.
Those close to Wandayi, however, have moved quickly to cool the speculation.
A personal aide to the CS dismissed suggestions of a political split, saying the gathering was part of the normal consultations taking place among political leaders.
“All these leaders are loyal to the party and its leadership. Each region is caucusing and there is no harm when leadership from Siaya caucuses,” the aide said.
It is a reassuring explanation.
But politically, it does not answer the bigger question.
Why these six? Why now? And what was discussed behind closed doors?
There is no publicly confirmed evidence that the meeting was convened to plot the removal of Governor James Orengo in 2027. Neither has any participant announced the formation of an anti-Orengo coalition.
But that has not stopped the theory from gaining traction.
The reason is simple: the political arithmetic is beginning to change.
For years, Siaya politics has been dominated by a relatively recognisable hierarchy of influence. But the post-Raila political era has introduced new uncertainties, new ambitions and potentially new centres of power.
The Nairobi luncheon may therefore be less about what was formally agreed and more about politicians testing whether they can sit at the same table.
And that is where Atandi’s role becomes particularly interesting.
The Alego Usonga MP was seated prominently among the political heavyweights. As chairman of the powerful National Assembly Budget and Appropriations Committee, Atandi has acquired a national platform that few politicians from Siaya currently enjoy.
His growing stature raises a tantalising political question: is Atandi merely an influential parliamentarian, or is he gradually positioning himself as one of the county’s next major political brokers?
If the latter is true, then the Nairobi meeting assumes an entirely different significance.
It was not simply a gathering of MPs and county officials.
It was a meeting involving politicians with the ability to influence constituencies, county administration, Parliament and, potentially, the 2027 political equation.
Then there is Otiende Amollo.
The senior counsel and Rarieda MP is no stranger to political controversy, nor is he easily classified within a simple political camp. His public political positions have sometimes put him at odds with other leaders from the county.
His presence at the luncheon — and his subsequent social-media post — provided another layer of intrigue.
Some online commentators were quick to question his association with what they described as his “new-found friends”, particularly given the history of political disagreements among some of those seated at the table.
But political alliances are rarely permanent.
Today’s adversary can become tomorrow’s coalition partner if the political arithmetic changes.
That may be the most important lesson from the Nairobi lunch.
The people seated around that table do not necessarily have identical political interests. What they may have discovered, however, is that their interests could temporarily converge.
And if that happens, the political consequences could be significant.
For Governor Orengo, the gathering presents an uncomfortable optics problem even if no anti-incumbency pact was discussed.
A governor does not necessarily need to be directly targeted for a political threat to emerge. Sometimes the danger begins when influential figures who once operated in separate political lanes begin talking to one another.
The involvement of Deputy Governor William Oduol is therefore impossible to ignore.
Oduol has had his own complicated political relationship with the county administration. His presence at a table containing several elected leaders could be interpreted as routine consultation — or as evidence that he is keeping his political options deliberately open.
And then there is the county’s political machinery.
Speaker George Okode’s presence brings the County Assembly dimension into the equation. Ombaka brings the countywide women’s vote. The three MPs bring constituency-level influence. Oduol brings the executive angle.
Individually, each politician has influence.
Collectively, their appearance at the same table creates a political picture that is difficult to dismiss as insignificant.
Still, responsible journalism demands a distinction between what is known and what is whispered.
There is no evidence publicly establishing that the leaders agreed to challenge Orengo in 2027.
There is no evidence that they discussed sharing elective positions.
There is no evidence that they agreed on a candidate.
And there is no evidence that the absence of Wandayi, Gumbo or Oburu was deliberate.
But political observers are entitled to ask questions.
Was this merely a regional caucus?
Was it an attempt to reconcile leaders who have previously disagreed?
Was it an informal strategy session ahead of the 2027 elections?
Was it about the future of ODM in Siaya?
Or was it the first discreet meeting of politicians who could eventually form a formidable anti-Orengo coalition?
For now, there are no definitive answers.
What is certain is that the political temperature in Siaya is rising.
The 2027 election is still months away, but the groundwork for political realignment is already being laid in boardrooms, private homes, hotel restaurants and quiet conversations away from the cameras.
And the Nairobi luncheon has demonstrated one uncomfortable truth about Siaya politics:
The next political battle may not be decided by the politicians currently shouting the loudest. It may be decided by those quietly learning to sit together.
The most revealing part of the Nairobi lunch may therefore not be what was said.
It may be what happens next.
If these leaders begin appearing together more frequently, coordinating their positions, defending one another publicly or converging around common political demands, the luncheon could retrospectively be seen as the opening move of a new Siaya political formation.
If nothing follows, it will remain what its defenders insist it was — lunch.
But if the political landscape begins shifting in the months ahead, Siaya residents may look back at that Nairobi table and ask a very different question:
Was that where the 2027 succession game quietly began?
