The Ugunja parliamentary by-election slated for November 27, 2025, is fast emerging as one of the most closely watched political contests in Nyanza — a microcosm of Kenya’s shifting electoral mood where loyalty to party is being tested against the rising tide of political awareness and voter independence.
At the heart of this contest stands Moses Omondi, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) flagbearer, long considered the favorite to succeed James Opiyo Wandayi, who exited to join the Kenya Kwanza government. Omondi’s candidacy carries institutional muscle, logistical advantage, and the blessing of ODM’s powerful machinery. Yet beneath the surface of what seemed a foregone conclusion, a quiet rebellion is brewing.
From Apparent Headstart to Growing Resistance
Moses Omondi’s campaign was initially buoyed by his reputation as Wandayi’s loyal lieutenant and Ugunja Constituency Manager — a man who had helped coordinate development projects, manage the Constituency Development Fund, and maintain order in the MP’s office. But as campaigns gain pace, his greatest credential has become his greatest liability.
A woke, politically literate electorate is now questioning whether Omondi’s rise is driven by personal merit or political patronage. Many residents see him as a product of insider politics — a continuation of Wandayi’s influence rather than a people’s choice.
“The people of Ugunja want continuity in development, yes,” said a local civic leader in Sidindi, “but not continuity in control. We are tired of leaders being imposed on us in the name of loyalty.”
That sentiment has found expression in the candidacy of MJ Okumu, an unassuming but respected community leader whose reputation for integrity and grassroots service has made him a formidable challenger.
The MJ Okumu Factor — Humble, Grounded, and Rising Fast
Maurice (MJ) Okumu, running under the Liberal Party of Kenya (LPK), was initially dismissed as a peripheral contender. But his understated campaign, anchored in door-to-door mobilization and issue-based messaging, has struck a chord with sections of voters disenchanted by ODM’s internal politics.
Okumu’s only visible handicap is financial reach — he lacks the vast campaign machinery that ODM can deploy across the constituency. Yet, what he lacks in money, he compensates for in credibility and moral authority. His calm demeanor and record in community-based projects have earned him respect across political divides.
The turning point came after the controversial ODM primaries, in which political heavyweights Joseph Alur and ZB Owino — both seen as formidable contenders — dropped out under what insiders describe as “bungled processes.” Their supporters, feeling disenfranchised, have largely drifted toward MJ Okumu and, to a lesser extent, Chris Budo of KANU.
A Contest No Longer Predictable
Although Moses Omondi still enjoys a headstart thanks to ODM’s organizational might, nothing is guaranteed. Word on the ground is that Okumu and Budo have hived off a substantial share of voters previously loyal to Alur and ZB Owino.
“ZB’s supporters are voting in anger,” a ward youth mobilizer in Sega confided. “They see this by-election as their chance to show ODM that Ugunja cannot be managed from Nairobi.”
KANU’s Chris Budo — charismatic and outspoken — is positioning himself as the voice of defiance against political complacency. While his party’s footprint in Siaya is modest, Budo’s fiery rhetoric and bold promises of change have energized younger voters.
“ODM has long enjoyed dominance here, but if the field is truly level, they should brace for a huge surprise,” he declared after his clearance.
IEBC Clears 11 Candidates — But Unease Lingers
On Wednesday, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) approved the candidacies of Benson Obol Otieno (United Green Movement), Erick Ofiro (Jubilee Party), Vincent Olengo (Kenya Moja), Fredrick Ochiel (United Democratic Movement), and Oliver Ochieng’ (National Liberal Party).
A day later, Lilian Akinyi Aketch (National Alliance Party), Moses Omondi (ODM), Orodi Odhiambo (Wiper Democratic Movement), Maurice Okumu (Liberal Party of Kenya), and Chris Budo (KANU) were also cleared.
IEBC Commissioner Mary Caren Sorobit, who oversaw the process, reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to a transparent election.
“The Commission is fully prepared to conduct free, fair, and credible by-elections. We call on candidates to maintain peace and focus on issue-based campaigns,” she said.
Still, murmurs of discontent persist. Several aspirants have accused the ODM candidate of using government vehicles and resources in pre-campaign activities — claims that raise eyebrows about state interference and uneven competition.
One aspirant, who requested anonymity, said:
“We respect the IEBC, but vigilance is needed. Let no one use state machinery to tilt the race.”
Other Voices in the Field
Beyond the front-runners, several minor-party candidates are working quietly to consolidate niche constituencies.
Lilian Akinyi Aketch (National Alliance Party) has carved a space for herself as the only woman in the race, running on a gender equity platform that appeals to women’s groups and civic movements.
Fredrick Ochiel (United Democratic Movement) and Vincent Olengo (Kenya Moja) are appealing to issue-based voters focused on infrastructure and youth empowerment.
Orodi Odhiambo (Wiper) brings in the Kalonzo factor, hoping to test the waters of lower Nyanza for Wiper’s expansion beyond its traditional Eastern base.
While none are projected to win, their collective presence may split votes and influence future allegiances — particularly in areas like Rang’ala, Sigomre, and Ambira.
ODM’s Grip Tested, Democracy on Trial
Ugunja has long been an ODM fortress. But the upcoming by-election is shaping into a litmus test of democratic maturity — both for the party and the electorate.
For ODM, a loss or even a narrow victory would signal diminishing control and a need to re-evaluate its nomination processes. For the electorate, this is an opportunity to assert independence and reject handpicked leaders.
“The people of Ugunja can make history,” said political analyst Achieng Okoth. “If they defy patronage and vote based on conscience, they will redefine what political representation means in Siaya.”
The Verdict That Could Reshape Ugunja
As campaigns officially begin, the race has no clear front-runner anymore. Moses Omondi’s headstart is real but shaky; MJ Okumu’s momentum is growing; Chris Budo’s defiance is resonating; and Lilian Aketch’s symbolic candidacy adds moral texture to the field.
Whatever happens in Ugunja on November 27, the result will echo beyond constituency borders. It will either affirm ODM’s enduring grip or mark the rise of an assertive, self-determined electorate no longer swayed by political patronage.
For now, one thing is clear — Ugunja is awake, restless, and ready to make its voice heard at the ballot.
In the end, the real question isn’t who wins — but what kind of democracy Ugunja will choose.
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