ADVERT 
The race for Nairobi’s top seat is already tilting—and dramatically so. Governor Johnson Sakaja is emerging as the man to beat in 2027, with rivals reportedly losing nerve, scrambling for political cover, and quietly abandoning the fight for the coveted ODM ticket.
At the center of the storm is Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, whose hardline politics now appear to be costing him dearly. With whispers growing louder that ODM may not hand him the gubernatorial ticket, insiders say the outspoken legislator could be forced into a political detour—possibly jumping ship to a new outfit linked to former governor Mike Sonko.
But as his opponents flex muscles and trade political jabs, Sakaja is playing a different game—one of strategy, delivery, and quiet infiltration of power corridors.
THE ODM FACTOR: A GAME-CHANGER
In a twist that could seal the race before it even begins, Sakaja is steadily warming his way into ODM’s orbit through the emerging “broad-based” political arrangement with UDA. Should the Orange party tilt in his favor—or even soften its stance—the contest could effectively be over before ballots are cast.
For his rivals, that possibility is sending shockwaves.
With ODM widely viewed as Nairobi’s most influential political vehicle, the prospect of Sakaja either securing its backing or neutralizing its opposition has thrown competitors into disarray. Some are now eyeing alternative, less competitive seats—a clear sign of cold feet in a high-stakes battle.
DEVELOPMENT VS NOISE
While critics engage in optics and chest-thumping, Sakaja is banking on tangible results.
Across Nairobi, his administration’s footprint is hard to miss: upgraded roads, expanded healthcare services, and a sweeping beautification programme that is redefining the city’s image. From the CBD to the estates, the transformation narrative is gaining traction.
Perhaps most impactful is the school feeding programme now running in over 200 public primary schools—an initiative that has not only boosted enrolment but cemented Sakaja’s support among ordinary Nairobians struggling with the cost of living.
Simply put, while others talk, Sakaja is building.
OPPOSITION IN DISARRAY
The opposition, once seen as a formidable force in the capital, is now increasingly fragmented and agenda-light. With no clear frontrunner and internal wrangles over party tickets, the camp risks handing Sakaja a walkover.
Political analysts warn that without unity and a compelling alternative vision, the opposition could be reduced to spectators in a race that demands both structure and substance.
NUMBERS DON’T LIE
Nairobi’s complex voter base—cutting across Kikuyu, Luhya, Luo and other communities—has historically favored candidates with broad alliances. Sakaja’s positioning within both UDA and ODM-friendly circles gives him a powerful electoral advantage that few can match.
Add that to incumbency, visible development, and a fractured opposition, and the equation becomes increasingly one-sided.
THE VERDICT?
Barring a dramatic political upset, Sakaja is not just in the race—he is running it.
As 2027 draws closer, the signs are unmistakable: rivals are retreating, alliances are shifting, and Nairobi’s political battlefield is being redrawn in real time.
For now, one conclusion is hard to escape—Governor Johnson Sakaja is sprinting toward a second term, and unless the opposition finds its footing fast, the finish line may come far too easy.
