Residents of Nyanza and several other regions across the country have been put on high alert after the Kenya Meteorological Department (Kenya Met) warned of intensified rainfall and possible flooding as the New Year approaches.
In a weather advisory issued on Friday, December 26, 2025, Kenya Met cautioned that heavy rains are expected to peak between December 28 and 30, with some areas likely to record more than 30mm of rainfall within 24 hours.
“The rainfall is likely to intensify to more than 30mm/24hrs and spread to parts of the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, as well as the southern parts of the Coastal region of Kenya on 28th and 29th December 2025,” the department said in a post on X.
Nyanza on the frontline
The Lake Victoria Basin, including large parts of Nyanza, is among the regions expected to bear the brunt of the downpour. Counties listed as high-risk include Migori, Homa Bay and Kisii, raising concerns over flash floods, waterlogging and disruption of transport and livelihoods.
Other counties likely to be affected are Narok, Kajiado, Makueni, Machakos, Nairobi, Kericho, Bomet, southern parts of Kitui, as well as Taita-Taveta and Kwale.
According to Kenya Met, the probability of heavy rainfall during this period stands at between 33 and 66 per cent, categorising it as moderate to heavy rainfall.
Flood risk and safety concerns
The department warned that such rainfall levels could trigger flooding in low-lying areas, especially in urban centres and flood-prone regions near rivers and lakes. Residents have been advised to remain vigilant, avoid crossing flooded roads and rivers, and heed guidance from local authorities.
“Heavy rainfall of more than 20mm in 24 hours is expected in parts of the southeastern lowlands on 27th December 2025,” the alert further noted.
Encouragingly, Kenya Met says the intensity of the rains is expected to gradually subside from December 30, 2025.
While much of western, central and southern Kenya braces for rain, other parts of the country will experience contrasting weather conditions.
Coastal counties including Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale, as well as coastal parts of Tana River County, are forecast to experience scattered showers alongside hot and humid conditions for most of the week, except on Friday and Saturday mornings and afternoons. Temperatures in these areas are expected to reach highs of 34°C, with lows of around 23°C.
In northern Kenya, counties such as Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, alongside Turkana and Samburu, will experience day-long sunny intervals and generally dry conditions.
However, Kenya Met warned of strong southeasterly winds exceeding 25 knots (12.5 m/s) over Marsabit County in the coming days, which could affect transport and outdoor activities.
“Occasional rainfall is expected over the southern half of the country. Rainfall intensity is likely to increase as the forecast period progresses. Strong southeasterly winds, exceeding 25 knots, are anticipated over Marsabit counties,” the department stated.
As Kenyans prepare to usher in the New Year, authorities are urging communities in high-risk areas to take precautionary measures and stay updated on weather advisories to minimize loss of life and property.
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